BTC: Navigating the Correction – Key Levels and Swing Strategy
Choosing the Most Relevant Timeframe for a Position
• Given the neutrality of the AVG on the MTFTI and the bearish trend on the 1H to 6H timeframes, the market lacks short-term momentum.
• The 12H and 1D timeframes maintain a bullish trend but are currently in a slow corrective phase.
• From a pure swing trading perspective, the 8H or 12H timeframes can provide the best reversal signals, as they are slow enough to filter out false signals but fast enough to catch a move when the market resumes its trend.
• Conclusion: The 8H or 12H timeframes appear to be a good compromise for a swing trading strategy, given that the goal is to wait for the correction to end before re-entering in line with the still-positive long-term trend.
Key Support and Resistance Zones
Major Supports on BTC/USDT
• Short-term (2H/4H): 95,850–94,700 USDT (LoAVWAP).
• Stronger low in the correction zone: 93,000 USDT.
• Below that, the last short/mid-term defense: 89,000–90,000 USDT.
Resistances
• On the daily, HiAVWAP is around 102,000–103,000 USDT, or even 105,000 USDT if considering previous highs.
• The 102k–105k zone has often acted as a major resistance, blocking upward momentum.
Context
• If BTC corrects below 96k, there is room to test 93k.
• A clear break below 89–90k would invalidate the bullish daily structure and could trigger a deeper decline.
Final (Non-Financial) Recommendations
• Wait for the correction to end before initiating or reinforcing a position. The 8H–12H timeframes often provide the best swing timing.
• Partial buy zone if BTC retests ~93k–94k, with a safety stop below 89k for those looking to limit risk.
• Monitor Investor Satisfaction (ISPD & Mason’s Line):
• If Investor Satisfaction drops to 0.10–0.15 on 8H/12H while BTC holds a key support, it could be a solid entry point.
• Consider scaling out or taking profits if BTC revisits 100–102k (HiAVWAP daily), especially if Investor Satisfaction rises above 0.9.
• Stay alert to macro news (inflation, potential Trump/Elon comments) that could accelerate the short-term correction.
Summary
• Technical indicators confirm an ongoing correction.
• However, the broader trend (12H-1D-1W) remains bullish, favoring a potential rebound above 100k.
• The 93,000 USDT level is critical: above it, the correction remains healthy; below it, caution is warranted.
• Given the neutrality of the AVG on the MTFTI and the bearish trend on the 1H to 6H timeframes, the market lacks short-term momentum.
• The 12H and 1D timeframes maintain a bullish trend but are currently in a slow corrective phase.
• From a pure swing trading perspective, the 8H or 12H timeframes can provide the best reversal signals, as they are slow enough to filter out false signals but fast enough to catch a move when the market resumes its trend.
• Conclusion: The 8H or 12H timeframes appear to be a good compromise for a swing trading strategy, given that the goal is to wait for the correction to end before re-entering in line with the still-positive long-term trend.
Key Support and Resistance Zones
Major Supports on BTC/USDT
• Short-term (2H/4H): 95,850–94,700 USDT (LoAVWAP).
• Stronger low in the correction zone: 93,000 USDT.
• Below that, the last short/mid-term defense: 89,000–90,000 USDT.
Resistances
• On the daily, HiAVWAP is around 102,000–103,000 USDT, or even 105,000 USDT if considering previous highs.
• The 102k–105k zone has often acted as a major resistance, blocking upward momentum.
Context
• If BTC corrects below 96k, there is room to test 93k.
• A clear break below 89–90k would invalidate the bullish daily structure and could trigger a deeper decline.
Final (Non-Financial) Recommendations
• Wait for the correction to end before initiating or reinforcing a position. The 8H–12H timeframes often provide the best swing timing.
• Partial buy zone if BTC retests ~93k–94k, with a safety stop below 89k for those looking to limit risk.
• Monitor Investor Satisfaction (ISPD & Mason’s Line):
• If Investor Satisfaction drops to 0.10–0.15 on 8H/12H while BTC holds a key support, it could be a solid entry point.
• Consider scaling out or taking profits if BTC revisits 100–102k (HiAVWAP daily), especially if Investor Satisfaction rises above 0.9.
• Stay alert to macro news (inflation, potential Trump/Elon comments) that could accelerate the short-term correction.
Summary
• Technical indicators confirm an ongoing correction.
• However, the broader trend (12H-1D-1W) remains bullish, favoring a potential rebound above 100k.
• The 93,000 USDT level is critical: above it, the correction remains healthy; below it, caution is warranted.
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Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.