BTC/USDT: Testing $106K Resistance – Breakout or Pullback?

Key Takeaways and Comprehensive Analysis

1. Bullish Momentum
• The overall trend remains upward, with a potential target between 109k and 110k.
• BTC is currently testing critical resistance near 105k–106k, which aligns with key levels on multiple indicators and price dynamics.

2. Short-term Correction Risk
• On shorter timeframes (2H/4H), RSI is approaching overbought levels, and ISPD indicators show signs of high satisfaction among investors.
• A pullback to 100k–101k (support from Auto AVWAP and EMA21) remains possible before the next leg higher.

3. No Imminent Supply Shock
• While exchange balances appear to be dropping, this is mainly due to significant BTC migrating to ETF custody wallets.
• The combined BTC supply in exchanges and ETFs has remained stable at around 3 million coins, suggesting no immediate scarcity driving this rally.

4. Upside Targets
• Resistance:
• 105k–106k (major pivot).
• 109k–110k (next target, supported by structural analysis).
• 114k–115k (possible extension if momentum accelerates).
• Support:
• 101k–103k (EMA21 and intraday key support).
• 99k–100k (psychological level and VWAP).

5. Trading Scenarios
• Scenario 1 – Pullback Buy:
• If BTC retraces to 100k–101k, this could provide a strong entry point for traders aiming for the 109k–110k target.
• Scenario 2 – Breakout Entry:
• A confirmed break above 106k (with a 4H or Daily close) would signal continuation, with targets at 109k and beyond.

6. On-Chain Confirmation
• Metrics show steady capital inflows, with the Realized Cap increasing by 2.1x from the previous cycle’s low.
• Long-term holders have distributed approximately 1.2 million BTC since December 2023, absorbed by new buyers at higher price levels.

7. Final Perspective
• BTC remains in a strong bullish phase. The key inflection point at 105k–106k will determine whether the next leg higher is immediate or preceded by a short pullback.
• A breakout above 106k opens the door to 109k–110k, with further upside possible if market momentum continues to build.
• Traders can watch for entries on dips or breakout confirmations, with the current macro and technical environment favoring long positions.