Bitcoin Elliott Wave Analysis
Atualizado
This is an Elliott Wave Analysis on BTC’s movement, charted from the beginning of BTC to right now. Based on Wave Degree, this analysis assumes we are in Wave V of the Grand Primary Cycle, in Wave III of the Super Cycle (yellow symbols), and just about to finish the ABC correction of the C extension on the Regular Cycle (white symbols).
Charted in Lime Green is the Primary Cycle count that is being observed on the 4H time frame.
On the assumption that Super Cycle Wave III is complete – 1.618% of Wave I – we are currently in the Wave IV retracement of the Regular Cycle ( white). The bearish divergence formed on Wave V of the Super Cycle leads more confluence that Wave III on Super Cycle ( yellow ) was complete.
Alternatives:
A.) Price may still be in Wave III, and Wave III could be an extension (validation would be entering red invalidation zone above and Wave IV retracement does not complete)
B.) Price may still be in Wave I if it enters red invalidation zone below.
Projection for C extension:
Currently on C extension of an ABC Zig Zag (5-3-5 structure) corrective pattern on Regular Cycle (white symbols)
Projected to hit 1.236 - 1.618 of Wave A ($58,016.26 - $55,281.33, variance of 1% accepted)
Currently on Wave II of the impulse for the C extension on the Primary Cycle (green symbols)
Projected to hit 1.236 - 1.618 ($55,367.23 – $57,715.49)
Projection for Wave IV retracement
After completing the Zig Zag of the C extension, Wave IV will be complete. The .236 has been hit, however we expect price to retrace to the .382 - .5 zone (56.8k to 53.k). Invalidation for Wave IV would entering the red invalidation zone, as it would retrace further than Wave I.
Charted in Lime Green is the Primary Cycle count that is being observed on the 4H time frame.
On the assumption that Super Cycle Wave III is complete – 1.618% of Wave I – we are currently in the Wave IV retracement of the Regular Cycle ( white). The bearish divergence formed on Wave V of the Super Cycle leads more confluence that Wave III on Super Cycle ( yellow ) was complete.
Alternatives:
A.) Price may still be in Wave III, and Wave III could be an extension (validation would be entering red invalidation zone above and Wave IV retracement does not complete)
B.) Price may still be in Wave I if it enters red invalidation zone below.
Projection for C extension:
Currently on C extension of an ABC Zig Zag (5-3-5 structure) corrective pattern on Regular Cycle (white symbols)
Projected to hit 1.236 - 1.618 of Wave A ($58,016.26 - $55,281.33, variance of 1% accepted)
Currently on Wave II of the impulse for the C extension on the Primary Cycle (green symbols)
Projected to hit 1.236 - 1.618 ($55,367.23 – $57,715.49)
Projection for Wave IV retracement
After completing the Zig Zag of the C extension, Wave IV will be complete. The .236 has been hit, however we expect price to retrace to the .382 - .5 zone (56.8k to 53.k). Invalidation for Wave IV would entering the red invalidation zone, as it would retrace further than Wave I.
Nota
We completed a perfect zig zag and afterwards an ABC, we appear to continue impulsing downward. If so, we are creating a WXY double three combo (combination of two corrective patterns) and I believe this is the most likely taking into consideration wave degree, alternation within a correction, depth of corrective waves, guideline of channeling, fib ratios, and also RSI is currently hitting resistance.
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