BTC Christmas Rally | How will BTC fair in the year of COVID?
Hi All,
My prediction from election till end of year in its simplest form boils down to 2 ideas:
Short term price action
1. Triple Flag Pattern
- triple flag pattern (from 1st april 2019 to end of 2019), (from historic march low to august), (from october til end of 2020)
- similar to moore's law, through each cycle, we are seeing half the length of time it takes to form a single flag, and each formation nets half of the original gain
For example:
Flag 1 (256 days) => 200% gain
Flag 2 (128 days) => 100% gain
Flag 3 (64 days) => (you guessed it, 50% gain)?
-> We will hit roughly 16k (top of the third flag) for the remainder of the year.
-> We are bouncing off the major support trend line from march lows, this will carry on to act as support until end of year, my new estimate for support at the EOY is highlighted by the yellow flag (approx 13.3k USD)
Long term price action
2. Descending Wedge => newer all time highs
-> 2.5 year descending wedge will propel BTC to newer high - which has come to an end from july 2020. Please refer to the major supporting trend line in (dotted white) from 2019 to the end of 2020 (it will continue to act as support for the remainder of the year, and has successfully tested during all the month of October 2020).
We are now entering the 2nd cycle of the historic descending wedge formation beyond the year of 2021 onwards.
Note: BTC halving last occured in May 2020, and generally takes 1.5yr to hit ATH , my estimate will be October 2021 to realise ATH gain of all time.
Conclusion:
-> We will be seeing a new high for the period of ending year of 2020 at roughly 16k USD
-> By end of year, new support will form around 13.3k USD support
-> With current trading price of 12.7k USD at the time of writing, there is still plenty of gains to be realised with conditional settings.
Considerations:
Regardless of election win, it will still require the senate to approve all tax reformation laws if any; and the chances of not repairing the economy before reforming the nation will erode the states of maintaining their position as a reserve currency, hence, the best interest of the U.S. will be to take care of the economy before implementing new rules.
This would mean, that the talks of ongoing stimulus between Pelosi and the fed continues, the expected package is reportedly worth 1.8T-2.2T as of 22/10/20.
As more money is printed, BTC continues to acts as a hedge with the final round to come, therefore as BTC is inversely proportional to the dollar, the foreseeable outlook of BTC is more bullish than bearish . (this is also reflected on the MACD , whereby we are above 0)
Article: "Here’s How The Stock Market Has Performed Before, During, And After Presidential Elections"
My prediction from election till end of year in its simplest form boils down to 2 ideas:
Short term price action
1. Triple Flag Pattern
- triple flag pattern (from 1st april 2019 to end of 2019), (from historic march low to august), (from october til end of 2020)
- similar to moore's law, through each cycle, we are seeing half the length of time it takes to form a single flag, and each formation nets half of the original gain
For example:
Flag 1 (256 days) => 200% gain
Flag 2 (128 days) => 100% gain
Flag 3 (64 days) => (you guessed it, 50% gain)?
-> We will hit roughly 16k (top of the third flag) for the remainder of the year.
-> We are bouncing off the major support trend line from march lows, this will carry on to act as support until end of year, my new estimate for support at the EOY is highlighted by the yellow flag (approx 13.3k USD)
Long term price action
2. Descending Wedge => newer all time highs
-> 2.5 year descending wedge will propel BTC to newer high - which has come to an end from july 2020. Please refer to the major supporting trend line in (dotted white) from 2019 to the end of 2020 (it will continue to act as support for the remainder of the year, and has successfully tested during all the month of October 2020).
We are now entering the 2nd cycle of the historic descending wedge formation beyond the year of 2021 onwards.
Note: BTC halving last occured in May 2020, and generally takes 1.5yr to hit ATH , my estimate will be October 2021 to realise ATH gain of all time.
Conclusion:
-> We will be seeing a new high for the period of ending year of 2020 at roughly 16k USD
-> By end of year, new support will form around 13.3k USD support
-> With current trading price of 12.7k USD at the time of writing, there is still plenty of gains to be realised with conditional settings.
Considerations:
Regardless of election win, it will still require the senate to approve all tax reformation laws if any; and the chances of not repairing the economy before reforming the nation will erode the states of maintaining their position as a reserve currency, hence, the best interest of the U.S. will be to take care of the economy before implementing new rules.
This would mean, that the talks of ongoing stimulus between Pelosi and the fed continues, the expected package is reportedly worth 1.8T-2.2T as of 22/10/20.
As more money is printed, BTC continues to acts as a hedge with the final round to come, therefore as BTC is inversely proportional to the dollar, the foreseeable outlook of BTC is more bullish than bearish . (this is also reflected on the MACD , whereby we are above 0)
Article: "Here’s How The Stock Market Has Performed Before, During, And After Presidential Elections"
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.