To explain the psychology of the chart. (note, this is a 1hrly chart), so the chart is not drawn to scale, only the pivotal points should be noted.
a) We are in phase 1. of a cycle where contraction\accumulation is taking place. It is evident that those with deep pockets are buying up and accumulating their coin holding. Why, to drop the load at a higher price, where ? that's the question. b) The support or accumulation area has been between the 2 Grey rectangle regions 9050 - 9400 and getting tighter. The tighter move is called expansion and its going towards the Appex of the symmetrical triangle. c) Initially I expect a quick movement to the upside and then down below the average price of the accumulation area. I'm thinking 8800 - 8900 d) There they\we buy up\collect from those who panic and drop their load. e) That would in a sense push the price back up with a little help from those who have initiated this f) FOMO kicks in as the price is pushed up (quick bounce) to the strong resistance, meanwhile the initiates will take their profit from those retailers and fomo buyers jumping in. This is the hard part, what price would that be? I'm thing at least 9950 -10400. Maybe they would push it more, either way, they would have unloaded some % of their accumulated coins at a better price.
I have a chart below showing what to expect in terms of price movement.
Ultimately, I believe we will head back down, towards the weekly 21 EMA or above, I'm thinking 8500. After that, it will be a slow grind to the next phase of the bitcoin cycle, phase 2, next parabolic stage.
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Cheers, S.Sari \ CryptoProspa
Big picture > I believe we are in the early stages of a new channel, the down trend is finished and we are starting an up trend channel with an unknown range at this point.
Nota
For those who like a traditional chart
Nota
While keeping an eye on the support line, we must factor other possibilities. The 2nd scenario, which is less likely but possible and we must always have a contingency, drops below the threshold as per this chart (open and close 4 hour candle). Then I expect the strong bounce off the 0.618 (~8550) range.
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