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Too Good To Be True
Atualizado
I wasn't expecting this move, but that's what Bitcoin does :) Last time we were at 40k, i sold all my Bitcoin and exited my positions. Even this mega short squeeze didn't reach my exit levels, so i'm still in profit and have more purchasing power.
This could change ofcourse and when it does i won't hesitate to go back in.
Let's review what we have now;
The Bullish Hat:
- OMG Amazon is hiring a crypocurrency product lead
- Price is up 35% in 6 consecutive days
- Price crossed above 50 day MA
- Price broke resitance levels 32,36 & 37k
- Price crossed above the gray zone of the overbought area
The Bearish Hat:
- Still in the trading range (30-41.3k)
- Below 200 MA (Definition of bear market)
- Very low monthly volume
- Volume / Price divergence (Volume not following pump)
- 89k Bitcoin still net sold on Binance (Volume Profile)
- Weekend pump (institutions & wire transfer not working)
- Engineered - pumps came on the last 2-3 hours just like previous traps.
With all these givens, i have to admit this move wasn't expected. It looks strong, but when you look deeper, you see that this is like a one man show and that is the composite man. Almost all sellers in July got squeezed (Not me LOL) So the whole month looks like a mega short squeeze.
So let's zoom out and look at the longer term trends. On the monthly scale, things still don't look good. Heikin Ashi charts are always good at filtering noise on the long term charts. Also look at the volume as we are about to close this month.
We still have yet to see a green bar on amonthly scale.
Again on the monthly scale, the main trend i've pointed out in my earlier analysis, still showing room for a downward move towards the oversold bottom of channel.
And let's talk some indicators as well. Although it's probably not one of yours, but i've spent around 6 months to optimize it, hence the name "Twin Optimized Trend Tracker"
This indicator is my headlight and confirmation before i enter any trade and it only had 6 trades since OCT 2018 with a return of 2.371% vs "buy and hold" return of 505% If it turns long, i turn bullish. Simple as that. While i can't predict it's calculation, i think price needs to stay above 37k and move sideways for a week or two and then pump over 42ish for it to print a buy signal. It's pretty much immune to fakeouts but note that 200MA is waiting at 44k! So even if it prints a buy signal at 42ish, a possible pull back from 44k would send us a bit lower which we can't foresee now.
Is Re-distribution Invalidated and Are We In Accumulation?
I think many of us are frustrated right now, following wyckoff schematics. Although it looks more like accumulation now (with break of the downtrend), I still believe we are in a redistribution simply because volume does not validate this price action and it is one of the main pillars of wyckoff method.
Even if this is accumulation, we will still see a higher low possibly at (32.328) and a possible spring. So there's no need to FOMO right now. FOMO buying never ends well. Time to buy was at 29k, but you listened to me and missed it, live with it :)))
Disclaimer: I'm short since 40k and i'm posting based on my position, not yours. So just don't FOMO right now. It's really too late for this leg.
For a bullish target, assuming this as accumulation (bullish hat) we have 18 columns on P&f chart. This is enough fuel to take us above 90k - if it happens to be accumulation.
To sum up, i think this Amazon job listing is as bullshit just like Apple & Facebook buying Bitcoin on their balance sheet. Big boys are powerful, and they can spread these news easily. I'm not going to invest my life savings based on a news that is verified by an unknown "insider". There was litterally little or no demand in July and they decided to pump so hard that everyone will turn bullish which looks like it worked.
Best
This could change ofcourse and when it does i won't hesitate to go back in.
Let's review what we have now;
The Bullish Hat:
- OMG Amazon is hiring a crypocurrency product lead
- Price is up 35% in 6 consecutive days
- Price crossed above 50 day MA
- Price broke resitance levels 32,36 & 37k
- Price crossed above the gray zone of the overbought area
The Bearish Hat:
- Still in the trading range (30-41.3k)
- Below 200 MA (Definition of bear market)
- Very low monthly volume
- Volume / Price divergence (Volume not following pump)
- 89k Bitcoin still net sold on Binance (Volume Profile)
- Weekend pump (institutions & wire transfer not working)
- Engineered - pumps came on the last 2-3 hours just like previous traps.
With all these givens, i have to admit this move wasn't expected. It looks strong, but when you look deeper, you see that this is like a one man show and that is the composite man. Almost all sellers in July got squeezed (Not me LOL) So the whole month looks like a mega short squeeze.
So let's zoom out and look at the longer term trends. On the monthly scale, things still don't look good. Heikin Ashi charts are always good at filtering noise on the long term charts. Also look at the volume as we are about to close this month.
We still have yet to see a green bar on amonthly scale.
Again on the monthly scale, the main trend i've pointed out in my earlier analysis, still showing room for a downward move towards the oversold bottom of channel.
And let's talk some indicators as well. Although it's probably not one of yours, but i've spent around 6 months to optimize it, hence the name "Twin Optimized Trend Tracker"
This indicator is my headlight and confirmation before i enter any trade and it only had 6 trades since OCT 2018 with a return of 2.371% vs "buy and hold" return of 505% If it turns long, i turn bullish. Simple as that. While i can't predict it's calculation, i think price needs to stay above 37k and move sideways for a week or two and then pump over 42ish for it to print a buy signal. It's pretty much immune to fakeouts but note that 200MA is waiting at 44k! So even if it prints a buy signal at 42ish, a possible pull back from 44k would send us a bit lower which we can't foresee now.
Is Re-distribution Invalidated and Are We In Accumulation?
I think many of us are frustrated right now, following wyckoff schematics. Although it looks more like accumulation now (with break of the downtrend), I still believe we are in a redistribution simply because volume does not validate this price action and it is one of the main pillars of wyckoff method.
Even if this is accumulation, we will still see a higher low possibly at (32.328) and a possible spring. So there's no need to FOMO right now. FOMO buying never ends well. Time to buy was at 29k, but you listened to me and missed it, live with it :)))
Disclaimer: I'm short since 40k and i'm posting based on my position, not yours. So just don't FOMO right now. It's really too late for this leg.
For a bullish target, assuming this as accumulation (bullish hat) we have 18 columns on P&f chart. This is enough fuel to take us above 90k - if it happens to be accumulation.
To sum up, i think this Amazon job listing is as bullshit just like Apple & Facebook buying Bitcoin on their balance sheet. Big boys are powerful, and they can spread these news easily. I'm not going to invest my life savings based on a news that is verified by an unknown "insider". There was litterally little or no demand in July and they decided to pump so hard that everyone will turn bullish which looks like it worked.
Best
Nota
Both sides of the story
Nota
Amazon denied the Bitcoin report, now what? cnbc.com/2021/07/26/bitcoin-btc-price-tops-39000-for-the-first-time-in-nearly-6-weeks.htmlNota
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