Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Short Squeeze or Breakdown?

Which Timeframe Seems Most Relevant?
• Indicator readings: The 4H and 8H remain the most interesting timeframes for spotting potential rebound opportunities. The ISPD Div Pro is low in satisfaction on 4H, signaling a potential reversal, while the HPI is high, which can indicate a temporarily oversold zone favorable for a technical rebound.
• Daily remains neutral-bullish, but slightly “overconfident” (ISPD ~0.80), which may indicate a saturation risk in the medium term. For swing positioning, refining entries via lower timeframes (4H/8H) is recommended to find an optimal entry and monitor the 100–102k$ resistance.
• Intraday: 2H provides a better buy-the-dip timing, allowing for more precise entries in anticipation of a technical rebound.

New insights from the Liquidation Map:
• The 98,500 – 102,000 $ zone is a massive liquidation area, which may cause increased volatility.
• If BTC breaks above 98,500 $ - 99,500 $, a short squeeze could trigger, pushing the price toward 102,000 $ or higher.
• Conversely, breaking below 95,000 $ would activate many long liquidations, increasing the risk of a drop toward 92,000 $.

Key Support and Resistance Levels for BTC/USDT

By combining technical analysis with liquidation data, here are the critical areas to watch:

Support Levels:
• 96,000 $ (near Auto AVWAP Low 4H, a short-term pivot).
• 94–95,000 $ (corresponds to the last local low and an area of liquidity concentration seen on the OI LIQMAP).
• 91–92,000 $ (a strong support zone that could be tested in case of increased selling pressure).

Resistance Levels:
• 98,700–99,000 $ (confluence of 50D/100D moving averages, Tenkan, and a strong accumulation of sell orders).
• 100,000–102,000 $ (a major liquidation zone where stop hunts are likely).
• 104,000 $ (an important level matching the AVWAP High Daily).

Bitcoin ETF Flows and Market Impact

Analysis of Bitcoin ETF flows shows a mixed trend:
• Massive outflows from Grayscale (GBTC):
• Frequent and significant net outflows, such as January 27 (-457.6M$), February 3 (-234.4M$), and February 6 (-140.2M$). This suggests continuous institutional selling pressure.
• Positive inflows into other ETFs (BlackRock, Fidelity, etc.):
• Some days saw strong positive inflows, such as January 31 (+368M$) and February 4 (+561M$), but these have not been enough to fully offset GBTC outflows.
• Latest data from February 10: Net inflows of +186.3M$, which could provide temporary support for BTC.

Implications:
• If ETF inflows continue to be positive, they could stabilize BTC and support a move toward 100–102k$.
• If GBTC outflows remain strong, selling pressure would persist, making a breakdown below 95k$ more likely.

Conclusion and Actionable Strategy

1. Market Context
• The market remains in a corrective A-B-C phase.
• A rebound toward 100–102k$ seems likely, but this move could still be a wave B before another drop.
• If ETF inflows remain stable, BTC could find support. However, if GBTC outflows persist, bearish pressure will remain strong.

2. Indicator and Liquidation Map Insights
• On the 4H, Investor Satisfaction is very low (~0.22), and Mason’s Satisfaction is above its SMA, signaling an imminent bullish impulse.
• On the Daily, ISPD is high (> 0.80), suggesting a medium-term topping risk if BTC reaches 100–102k$.
• HPI is more “overbought” on 4H (89) than on 1D (34), which favors a short-term rebound but with resistance risks ahead.

3. Suggested Strategy
• Buy pullbacks if BTC drops to 95–96k$ (or 92k$ if there is a selling excess).
• Target: Rebound toward 100–102k$, with partial profit-taking in this zone.
• If BTC closes above 102k$ (4H or Daily), a move toward 104k$ or higher is possible.
• If BTC falls below 91–92k$, a deeper bearish scenario (running flat) would be confirmed, leading to potential lower buy zones or short-term short trades.

Final Conclusion

Liquidation and ETF data confirm the previous analysis:
• The 98,500–102,000 $ zone is critical, where a short squeeze could push BTC higher.
• A rejection in this zone would increase the likelihood of a return to 92,000 $.
• ETF flows are a key factor: If inflows stabilize, BTC could hold up. However, renewed GBTC outflows would keep BTC under pressure.

Key Factors to Watch:
1. Upcoming economic data (US inflation, Powell’s speech) could trigger volatility.
2. Liquidation dynamics: A breakout above 98,500 $ could accelerate gains, while a drop below 95k$ would increase downside risk.
3. ETF flows: As long as inflows exceed GBTC outflows, BTC could remain stable. If outflows surge again, bearish momentum will strengthen.

Final Thoughts
• BTC is in a technical rebound phase (wave B or C) with 100–102k$ as a critical pivot.
• Failure to break this zone could lead to a drop back toward 92k$.
• The broader bullish trend remains intact, but this does not yet confirm the start of a full bull run.