is crypto-winter nigh?
Atualizado
The 8th wave of BTC price movement within the falling wedge has stalled - and what is usually a bullish pattern seems to be throwing out bearish signals. Normally, at this point of the wedge, a lot more trade activity would occur, which breaks through the downtrend. Nothing seems to suggest to me that a mighty push-up is on its way.
** Disclaimer** I'm a novice trader working to put my thoughts out there to see how they stack up against the market - please feel free to share/comment on my studies - please don't use this chart as financial advice
BTC had a short-lived pump last night - I noticed DXY dropped several dollars during the same period, which may have excited some bulls - but this looks like a false move due to the DXY interaction BTC has. (I wrote an idea on DXY/BTC interaction here tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/WTVCIPY5-DXY-BTC-inverse-relationship-holding/).
[The movement between these assets may be that people are switching between the two trying to find the safest home for their money given all the FUD around global markets. Regardless, it's BTC I'm concerned about because this coin is a strong marker for the movement of near on all other crypto-currencies as, I believe, most investors still hold a rudimentary understanding of cryptocurrencies and blockchains (and their differences).
In the hours since the DXY slip, BTC has stalled at ~$19150 for most of the day. Trade volume over the last 12 hours is only at 1% of yesterday's total trade volume - this is well below the average transactions over 24 hours and signals a very bearish outlook and a potential reversal of the falling wedge.
My gut feeling is that we will be re-testing the 18k mark in the short term before the market decides if it's time to blast everyone with the crypto winter we've all been expecting or surprise us with early Christmas presents. My sentiment is bearish, given the trading stall at $19150.
But of course this is crypto which means anything can happen
** Disclaimer** I'm a novice trader working to put my thoughts out there to see how they stack up against the market - please feel free to share/comment on my studies - please don't use this chart as financial advice
BTC had a short-lived pump last night - I noticed DXY dropped several dollars during the same period, which may have excited some bulls - but this looks like a false move due to the DXY interaction BTC has. (I wrote an idea on DXY/BTC interaction here tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/WTVCIPY5-DXY-BTC-inverse-relationship-holding/).
[The movement between these assets may be that people are switching between the two trying to find the safest home for their money given all the FUD around global markets. Regardless, it's BTC I'm concerned about because this coin is a strong marker for the movement of near on all other crypto-currencies as, I believe, most investors still hold a rudimentary understanding of cryptocurrencies and blockchains (and their differences).
In the hours since the DXY slip, BTC has stalled at ~$19150 for most of the day. Trade volume over the last 12 hours is only at 1% of yesterday's total trade volume - this is well below the average transactions over 24 hours and signals a very bearish outlook and a potential reversal of the falling wedge.
My gut feeling is that we will be re-testing the 18k mark in the short term before the market decides if it's time to blast everyone with the crypto winter we've all been expecting or surprise us with early Christmas presents. My sentiment is bearish, given the trading stall at $19150.
But of course this is crypto which means anything can happen
Nota
BTC has broken through the down trend of the falling wedge; I did potentially suggest the idea of an early Christmas, however it remains to be seen. I haven't yet but my bull horns on but the break out of the falling wedge maybe a good signNota
The breakout of the triangle is proving bullish, alongside DXY moving down toward the 109 mark, looks like DXY is forming a double or triple top which is a more bullish sentiment for BTC to hold the trend up. Is this then end of the winter? Only time will tell, but for now it's nice to see some relief even if it's minor.Nota
I'm going to flag now that the halt in price movement suggests the bulls arent in full control yet - the stall in price movement is never a good signal. tread carefullyNota
I've been baffled as to what caused the stall in this textbook breakout. After some digging, I initially just put it down to the DXY having a solid drop, but as DXY continued to fall, neither BTC nor ETH continued to climb - which was odd. I moved past it, putting it down to a lag in liquid exchange. While scrolling through Twitter, I found some information that could help explain the stall further.
See, there was a recent hack that occurred on the platform FTX. An API traders could use to link external accounts was not secure. This was detailed to the platform managers some days before the hack - FTX ignored the call to action. Some days later, people took to Twitter complaining that they had lost large sums of money. FTX failed to respond publically and to the individuals complaining about the lost funds (many even had evidence of activity on their account that they themselves were not transacting). 150m was lost to the exploit.
As many do with situations like this, they run in fear of being impacted too. As such, a heavy liquidation on the FTX platform has taken place. This likely explains the quick leap up into a stall for BTC and ETH. To be clear, 1.2B in currency (almost 80% of FTX's holdings) was liquidated and moved off FTX. This means the rally we have experienced is an exhaustion rally from the liquidation of currency off of FTX. It likely is an unsustainable rally, and therefore a move down maybe coming.
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