Major trends collide, BTC break out near, BTC to $21k+?

5 de jan. de 2020

If you have been following my posts, you know I have been putting focus on the collision of a 6 month descending channel and a strong 5 year ascending trendline. The collision finally occurred mid-December and the two trends have been battling it out ever since. We have seen the 5 year trendline(Dark Red Line) be tested twice already, I offer no certain evidence but strongly suspect that the 5 year trendline will likely be tested at least one more time. I have been using every touch of the 5 year trendline to position high leverage short term long trades (with great success) and continue accumulation of additional long term holdings. The first touch of the 5 year trendline mid-December was the bottom for BTC.

As discussed previously, there is no compelling reason BTC would break down out of its 5 year trend as it has held the trend in the past with BTC and crypto in far less advantageous positions. We are fast nearing a point where BTC must choose between maintaining the then 7 month descending channel or maintaining the 5 year ascending trend line. I suspect this will likely play out as an ascending wedge (between red and yellow lines) and break out 20-30% before the end of the wedge. You can see the wedge likely forming using historical $7800 as resistance (yellow line). If this plays out as a wedge we see the wedge technically ends around 1.March.2020 which makes a break out likely somewhere around end of January, beginning of February.

I believe that BTC is about to break upwards and have another run similar to what we saw the first 6 months of last year. How high this next run goes is pretty critical. The first high BTC saw was 21k, then last June we saw 14K as a high. Anything below 14K for this next run would validate a deterioration in the trend, anything greater than 14K would strongly validate a bull market and of course a run over 21k would be extremely bullish for the long term outlook of BTC. I think there is a good chance we see BTC break 21k this year but most importantly we need to see it break 14K, if we continue our descent, this next run may only make it to $9500. Its looking like 2020 should be a pretty interesting year for BTC.

Note: If we break below the 5 year trendline and convert it to resistance, traders should be very cautious and be ready to bail on all long holdings as a multi-year low may be on the way. (Highly improbable)

This is not investment advice, merely observations I have made as a trader. DYOR.