NEVER Trust TA Conclusions From Someone With A Fixed Narrative!
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Hello Dear Friends <3
I NEVER trust technical analysis conclusions from someone with a fixed narrative - Peter L. Brandt (world-famous trader and TA-book author).
- D4rkEnergY, you always say it can go either up or down.
- D4, You change your mind all the time.
- You are wrong again!
Down in the comments you will hear a lot of those comments over and over again from people who are new to trading. I admit it is sometimes hard for me to ignore, but I cannot really blame these people, since they lack basic knowledge about TA and trading. Often they are pretty tilted, cause they just lost a lot of money.
I have also noticed - many times - that a lot newbies, only take a quick look at my chart, and enter a trade in the direction one of my arrows are pointing in, and thereafter believe everything is good. A day after they come back, and tells me I was wrong and I'm guilty in they now are broke.
I'm not telling you guys this because I want you to feel sorry for me. I'm o.k. But maybe this will help new people understand some fundamentals about trading.
Let me come back to what Mr. Peter Brandt is saying, and the way I interpret it.
TA is about coming up with the most plausible scenarios based on historical data and with help from our TA-tools. That is also why you see me, again and again, giving you multiple outcomes on every chart. So when should we then trade, you may ask your self about?
When we can see that ONE of the ideas/scenarios are about to play out AND when we get the needed confirmation, THEN we can enter a trade!!
Let's take a look at Bitcoin today. It's the 4h Chart.
I here have 2 scenarios for you:
1. Purple, which is the bullish scenario. We here assume we are done with the ABC-correction, and now are on the the 3rd Primary EW on the 3rd subwave. IF this scenario shall play out, we have to go up very soon, and get that 3rd wave going. If we go below 8,280 USD we will have an EW-failure in the Purple-scenario, and we will go into the blue scenario.
2. Blue, which is a more bearish scenario, and the most likely. We here assume, that we still are in the process of a bigger ABC-correction. More specific a B-down correction (C-wave). If that's the case, our 50 % retracement of the whole EW cycle was not enough, and we will go down to 61,8 % retrace (equal to 8,100-8,000 USD) and try to restart a new EW Cycle.
If we also don't succeed here, we can expect to go 78,6 % (around 7,700 USD), and try ONE more time. Last but not least - if we get an EW failure of the whole cycle (dotted red line 7,200 USD), you can be very sure we will go even further down to 6,000 USD where we have a double bottom.
D4 Loves you <3
And once again. Thank you for all the nice comments in my PM. I really do appreciate it. Please give this chart a LIKE, and I will be very happy :)
I NEVER trust technical analysis conclusions from someone with a fixed narrative - Peter L. Brandt (world-famous trader and TA-book author).
- D4rkEnergY, you always say it can go either up or down.
- D4, You change your mind all the time.
- You are wrong again!
Down in the comments you will hear a lot of those comments over and over again from people who are new to trading. I admit it is sometimes hard for me to ignore, but I cannot really blame these people, since they lack basic knowledge about TA and trading. Often they are pretty tilted, cause they just lost a lot of money.
I have also noticed - many times - that a lot newbies, only take a quick look at my chart, and enter a trade in the direction one of my arrows are pointing in, and thereafter believe everything is good. A day after they come back, and tells me I was wrong and I'm guilty in they now are broke.
I'm not telling you guys this because I want you to feel sorry for me. I'm o.k. But maybe this will help new people understand some fundamentals about trading.
Let me come back to what Mr. Peter Brandt is saying, and the way I interpret it.
TA is about coming up with the most plausible scenarios based on historical data and with help from our TA-tools. That is also why you see me, again and again, giving you multiple outcomes on every chart. So when should we then trade, you may ask your self about?
When we can see that ONE of the ideas/scenarios are about to play out AND when we get the needed confirmation, THEN we can enter a trade!!
Let's take a look at Bitcoin today. It's the 4h Chart.
I here have 2 scenarios for you:
1. Purple, which is the bullish scenario. We here assume we are done with the ABC-correction, and now are on the the 3rd Primary EW on the 3rd subwave. IF this scenario shall play out, we have to go up very soon, and get that 3rd wave going. If we go below 8,280 USD we will have an EW-failure in the Purple-scenario, and we will go into the blue scenario.
2. Blue, which is a more bearish scenario, and the most likely. We here assume, that we still are in the process of a bigger ABC-correction. More specific a B-down correction (C-wave). If that's the case, our 50 % retracement of the whole EW cycle was not enough, and we will go down to 61,8 % retrace (equal to 8,100-8,000 USD) and try to restart a new EW Cycle.
If we also don't succeed here, we can expect to go 78,6 % (around 7,700 USD), and try ONE more time. Last but not least - if we get an EW failure of the whole cycle (dotted red line 7,200 USD), you can be very sure we will go even further down to 6,000 USD where we have a double bottom.
D4 Loves you <3
And once again. Thank you for all the nice comments in my PM. I really do appreciate it. Please give this chart a LIKE, and I will be very happy :)
Nota
Everything is pointing in the direction that we will go lower now. As you can see a HS pattern has formed.Expect therefore we very soon will go down!
I will follow up on this later - TY for following me guys. Please give a LIKE <3
Nota
I do understand why some people might be confused. This is also a very critical point for BTC! We might ruin our purple scenario if go just a bit further down.You can also see, that we can draw 2 different patterns - one are bullish and the other one are bearish. Also the MACD and RSI are really indecisive.
But when I take everything into consideration, I think it's more likely we will go down as I also said before.
D4 loves you <3
Nota
So this is a REALLY good example that underlined my point with this chart. As I told you before, I would assume we were more likely to go down than up (like 60-40). And as you can see we went up, so I was WRONG this time.But that doesn't really matter. As I told you in in the first place, it's all about trying to figure out the most plausible scenarios, which I did before.
And we will ONLY enter a trade when we get confirmation from one of those ideas. Like when it breaks up from the descending wedge or fell out from the descending triangle with good volume.
There you have it. Once again - thank you for following me, I really do appreciate it. Please give a like <3
Nota
So we have been going sideways for 18 hours. BUT expect something to happen within.... hmm... 6 hours. As you can see we are right now in an ascending triangle, which predicts we will go up eventually.There is a lot of uncertainty in the market at the moment. And people don't know what to do. They all wait for confirmation.
As I said before we will most likely go up, but once again we will face the zone of confluence resistance 9k-9,4k. And my guess is, that we will not be able to get through. We will get rejected again, and we will thereafter go down to 61,8 % retrace around 8,000 USD.
D4 loves you! And as always - hit that like button, so I can get a good night of sleep. Thx in advance :)
Nota
As I said before we most likely would go up, which we also did. But we will probably soon go lower again or get rejected at 9k. I still believe we are in a phase of a mix between disbelief and hope, and that is not enough to get through. We need to go back to at least 8k (61,8 retace) and try to restart at new EW Cycle from there.
Let's see <3
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