Bitcoin - Playing Strong Hands Against Aggressive Players
Atualizado
Another emotional day of Bitcoin for the majority of traders out there. Anyone that has played poker for any amount of time has heard the saying "I never win with pocket aces". Seriously this is a bunch of Hogwash. My favorite hand pre-flop is pocket aces period. Statistically I have the best starting hand there is. This is unarguable from a probability standpoint.
The market is no different. Even if you think the market can go lower, do you really think this is a market high? With pocket aces pre-flop sure you can lose the hand, but don't you think you are in a position to win? Many people that play pocket aces and lose with them often simply play them wrong. The slow play, the call in lieu of a push. After the flop they lose their nerve and start second guessing themselves.
Any reversal signal out of the 6000 range is a buy in my opinion. Even if no new money is entering the market, when traders and investors sell this money goes to the sidelines. When price goes up money comes off the sidelines. Regardless if there is new money entering or leaving than the market becomes range bound.
At the low of the range it is likely money is sitting on the sidelines waiting to come in. As shorts pile in more money is flowing to the sidelines and this is borrowed money. Under 6800 money starts to enter back into the market which is evident with the past three pullbacks to the 6k range. Now I am not implying we can't go lower, we always can, but statistics tell us this is where bulls need to play good hands and push.
There is nothing like the flop to put doubt into a weak player holding pocket aces. Often you can see it on their face. I may not be the best poker player, I'm better than average at best, but I seldom throw away aces in a cash game after the flop. They see 3 hearts on the flop and get nervous feet. I do not care, even without a heart I am calling heads up everytime. Probabilities tell me they are likely NOT holding two hearts. If they are so be it, but I do nd on probabilities. ot play on the what if's I play base
We hear this often at the table as well "I have to call". It is not they "have to" its just the poker is a game of probabilities and if you fold these kinds of hands all the time, your winnings will be less.
This is why we do not get spooked out of trades unless there is evidence of a breakdown. I do not see it, shorts continue to pile into a crowded trade, and the market is still making higher lows. How much more money can flow to the sidelines, much which is borrowed, before it steps back in or better yet is forced through liquidation?
Now I could be completely wrong here, but I am not going to succumb to the drama at the table and throw away a strong hand where the probability of winning is high. I keep throwing these hands away I will never make money in the long term. My winners will be small, my losers will be the same, and my overall performance will be slim. If I am making 2:1 RR trades and winning 40% of them, in the long term I am making money.
This is no different than a poker player who plays strong hands as they should and is not worried about short term losses, but long term gains. Going long at 6000 is a strong hand in my opinion, and win lose or draw, probabilities are on my side. If you are nervous about a trade than your position is too big, or your confidence is too little. Confident card players that play high probability hands like traders win in the long run. I don't care if my pocket aces get cracked 3x's back to back, I still play them the same!
The market is no different. Even if you think the market can go lower, do you really think this is a market high? With pocket aces pre-flop sure you can lose the hand, but don't you think you are in a position to win? Many people that play pocket aces and lose with them often simply play them wrong. The slow play, the call in lieu of a push. After the flop they lose their nerve and start second guessing themselves.
Any reversal signal out of the 6000 range is a buy in my opinion. Even if no new money is entering the market, when traders and investors sell this money goes to the sidelines. When price goes up money comes off the sidelines. Regardless if there is new money entering or leaving than the market becomes range bound.
At the low of the range it is likely money is sitting on the sidelines waiting to come in. As shorts pile in more money is flowing to the sidelines and this is borrowed money. Under 6800 money starts to enter back into the market which is evident with the past three pullbacks to the 6k range. Now I am not implying we can't go lower, we always can, but statistics tell us this is where bulls need to play good hands and push.
There is nothing like the flop to put doubt into a weak player holding pocket aces. Often you can see it on their face. I may not be the best poker player, I'm better than average at best, but I seldom throw away aces in a cash game after the flop. They see 3 hearts on the flop and get nervous feet. I do not care, even without a heart I am calling heads up everytime. Probabilities tell me they are likely NOT holding two hearts. If they are so be it, but I do nd on probabilities. ot play on the what if's I play base
We hear this often at the table as well "I have to call". It is not they "have to" its just the poker is a game of probabilities and if you fold these kinds of hands all the time, your winnings will be less.
This is why we do not get spooked out of trades unless there is evidence of a breakdown. I do not see it, shorts continue to pile into a crowded trade, and the market is still making higher lows. How much more money can flow to the sidelines, much which is borrowed, before it steps back in or better yet is forced through liquidation?
Now I could be completely wrong here, but I am not going to succumb to the drama at the table and throw away a strong hand where the probability of winning is high. I keep throwing these hands away I will never make money in the long term. My winners will be small, my losers will be the same, and my overall performance will be slim. If I am making 2:1 RR trades and winning 40% of them, in the long term I am making money.
This is no different than a poker player who plays strong hands as they should and is not worried about short term losses, but long term gains. Going long at 6000 is a strong hand in my opinion, and win lose or draw, probabilities are on my side. If you are nervous about a trade than your position is too big, or your confidence is too little. Confident card players that play high probability hands like traders win in the long run. I don't care if my pocket aces get cracked 3x's back to back, I still play them the same!
Nota
I had a couple comments on the parallel with poker. First I am glad people are asking legitimate questions. Everything in life is a gamble. Relationships, investing, trading, poker, buying a business, starting a job. There is a contract, probability and prize.
Do you get in a relationship thinking it will end in divorce? No put probability says 40% of marriages do. Are you henceforth gambling?
If I buy a restaurant and throw my life savings into it (done this) knowing that 90% of restaurants fail, is this gambling? Absolutely I am actually playing against the odds. Call it investing or whatever, but you are taking a chance, where if you are right, you win.
So to think that poker does not parallel trading or even investing is not to understand that investing is not a guaranteed win!! If you are investing in Bitcoin period you are gambling,or speculating. Call it what you want but you are taking a chance with hope of winning.
Listen if you do not take chances in life, (gamble) you will never be successful. With roulette the odds are against you. It is a simple game of chance. like flipping a coin. With poker it is a game of probability, strategy and understanding of the table conditions. If you never played poker you may not understand this, but if I take 100 people and put them at a roulette table with $1000 over time everyone of them will lose money. If I take those same 100 people and give them $1000 to play poker, the good players will end up with the money at the end. Trading and investing is no different.
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