The Abnormality Within Bitcoins Current Cycle

9 de abr. de 2020

Hello, My Friends, I hope everybody of you is doing well in today's market-environment and welcome to this analysis about bitcoins current cycle movement. There are some important signs and worthwhile indications I made which also play a big role within the current corona crisis and therefore the logical consequences the crisis is playing for the cryptocurrency-space. First of all it has to be mentioned that most countries in this world currently note a decline in their economic growth because of the hard corona-measures, therefore, we can see a recession declining price-action in the stock-markets and the normal economic-markets like car-industry or luxury-industry but this fact does not necessarily mean the cryptocurrency is in a bear market or a bull market, I already pointed out in recent analysis that we are still consolidating in the middle-term and that the next weeks and months will show us where the journey is bringing us. People who say that this or that scenario happen 1000% for sure can't be right, we have to look on the possibilities taking place in the markets and elevate ourselves above mere speculation, therefore, it is important to watch the chart as detached as possible and don't set a final-result as the only possible solution defined, volatile markets can show massive turns in the indicators used from day to another. I recommend that you read the whole analysis to have a full-depth perspective of the current situation.

In the crisis right now there are anticyclical investments like gold, pharmaceutics, food, and armor-industry! These fields are not influenced by the hard corona-measures, therefore, it is possible and not to be dismissed by hand that bitcoin plays into the anticyclical investments we have in this economic decline. I don't want to say right now that it is 100% the fact but what we can say is that bitcoin is not affected like the stock market and is not cyclical with the stock-market we saw this in recent bitcoin-bear-markets where bitcoin declined and the stock market increased. What is the importance now also when looking at my chart-picture is that we have a 4-years cycle in bitcoin similar to a normal economic cycle. Bitcoins cycle consists of three phases once it is the expansion, the second is growth and the third is a contraction, the normal economic cycle in the real economic consists of 4 phases. Because bitcoin is not like the normal economy we have a different cycle-movement similar to gold. The abnormality within the current cycle is defined by the hard corona-breakdown seen in the last weeks before we had this slow slow stabilization, it also affected other markets as stocks as well. The volatility was seen in this breakdown to the downside was not normal and we have never seen such a fast and heavy decline in bitcoin, also the situation right now that people do not leave their houses and have to stay inside, etc has been never seen since before, it is a completely new environment with other difficult problems we never saw in the crisis before.

Bitcoin 4-Year Economic Cycle



When we watch the chart closely now we see that bitcoin completed a full cycle in 4.04 years (can be rounded up to four years) that are 1477 days, in this phase bitcoin reached a new All-Time-High and peaked you can see the cycles marked in my chart, also the cycle is building a coherent structure with the underlying sine-curve. The problem in the current cycle is that we should do a new peak within the next cycle-ending time this will be in 2021. Also, we have a definite end where the bear-market is confirmed and a heavy contraction-phase to the downside sets in this is when we cross the lower black-support-line which you can see in my cyclical-picture. We need to see things now as they are and do not get too attached to wild irrational ideas that leading nowhere, therefore it is necessary to see bitcoin detached from the stock-market as an independent financial-instrument. When we establish to hold above the black-line we can see a possible second growth-phase within the 4-year cycle, in this case, we have to stabilize a minimum above 9000 and look at other mid-to-long-term indicators indicating the price-action of next weeks and months. Also my friends, we have seen the heavy decline because of the corona-fears coming in and affecting all markets but these first fears are over what comes now is the recession in many countries which are the consequences of the corona. This causes stocks to decline further because the economy is decreasing but that does not necessarily affect cryptocurrency, it can also be used as a hedge like pharmaceutics or armory which are seen as hedges in the classical stock-market of today's crisis.

So my friends thank you for watching my analysis, I hope everybody of you could get some important insight and where the journey will bring us the next time, feel free to support, thanks for everybody who is supporting, my friends. As I always say it is the motivation to transform opportunities into gold remains the most significant tool for a trader. this is why we should take the market seriously and make the best of every situation. ;)
FAREWELL

Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.

15 de fev.

Nota

ANALYSIS UPDATE: BITCOIN bounced out of the major accumulation channel bottom and emerged with a growth phase expansion into the upper horizons building a new peak.