Hi guys... I have been following BTC for some years now, and i have learned a lot along the process. I have made correct and wrong predictions. Its part of the learning curve...
Anyway, I would like to publish my idea on BTC. The way I see it is that we will have soon a halving that might have a significative impact on BTC. You can check on the chart the vertical line representing the expected halving date. Looking at the past of BTC we can see we have a small channel on the bottom, and a larger channel.
The down trend has years of existance and inumerous testings... I am assuming that at least this time, BTC will not breake it and we will continue in uptrend. If that line breaks, BTC does not look good.
However, I believe that the line won't break soon. Looking at other halving events, we notice a price surge before an event, followed by a price drop (meaning miners are holding before halving and dumping after). The price then follows the small channel untill it breaks.