Bitcoin scounting for higher highs
Atualizado
Ok so it finally moved. Time for an update then.
The suspense it at its highest now, Bitcoin is at resistances and we wait and see if it makes a higher high.
There is bearish divergence on the RSI, meaning stronger and stronger momentum fails to make higher highs (until now).
In the past 365 days the price either stayed below the MA100 or went briefly above but had no follow up and fell right away.
We never went more than 12% above the 100MA. Ignore Bitfinex "legit" move on the 15 october.
The price stayed below the 200MA for the past 11 months.
As you can see:
And compared to the day the MA was breached:
Do I think this is likely? NO. I thought we could likely go up 2 months ago, I was aiming for 6000, but the price has remained contained all this time.
I even thought we could go up all the way to 0.5 fib $7500.
Bulls have failed to show follow up again and again, and we are at resistance so I am just shorting Bitcoin, not super convinced, but we rarely are going to get something on a litecoin plater.
If it makes a higher high then maybe that cancels the short (or the usual club wanted to liquidate people before selling).
The general sentiment for whatever reason is so much towards the bull side. Even I am a little concerned I am shorting at the bottom. So I will countertrade myself because I have self awareness.
Bitcoin shorts are at the low of their 1 year trend, as well as monthly support.
Sentiment is high, momentum/rsi is high, shorts are low, but the price is not up.
This is pure going against the herd here. I hope I do not get stampeded :p. I am even going against myself.
Buying really does not make much sense yet. If the price makes a higher high and then a higher low, or stays the same way "in a rectangle" (not a triangle of lower highs) for the next 3 months then maybe? Or if it trends. Especially if it trends slowly and then accelerates and makes a new stronger trend...
Even if it goes up who cares about buying the bottom? You make 30% more money but you wait 3 times as long. Worth it?
Fingers crossed :)
The suspense it at its highest now, Bitcoin is at resistances and we wait and see if it makes a higher high.
There is bearish divergence on the RSI, meaning stronger and stronger momentum fails to make higher highs (until now).
In the past 365 days the price either stayed below the MA100 or went briefly above but had no follow up and fell right away.
We never went more than 12% above the 100MA. Ignore Bitfinex "legit" move on the 15 october.
The price stayed below the 200MA for the past 11 months.
As you can see:
And compared to the day the MA was breached:
Do I think this is likely? NO. I thought we could likely go up 2 months ago, I was aiming for 6000, but the price has remained contained all this time.
I even thought we could go up all the way to 0.5 fib $7500.
Bulls have failed to show follow up again and again, and we are at resistance so I am just shorting Bitcoin, not super convinced, but we rarely are going to get something on a litecoin plater.
If it makes a higher high then maybe that cancels the short (or the usual club wanted to liquidate people before selling).
The general sentiment for whatever reason is so much towards the bull side. Even I am a little concerned I am shorting at the bottom. So I will countertrade myself because I have self awareness.
Bitcoin shorts are at the low of their 1 year trend, as well as monthly support.
Sentiment is high, momentum/rsi is high, shorts are low, but the price is not up.
This is pure going against the herd here. I hope I do not get stampeded :p. I am even going against myself.
Buying really does not make much sense yet. If the price makes a higher high and then a higher low, or stays the same way "in a rectangle" (not a triangle of lower highs) for the next 3 months then maybe? Or if it trends. Especially if it trends slowly and then accelerates and makes a new stronger trend...
Even if it goes up who cares about buying the bottom? You make 30% more money but you wait 3 times as long. Worth it?
Fingers crossed :)
Nota
About the hidden divergence, books/the internet tells us it has a pretty high winrate, but it does not tell how high or low the lower high will be (can also be as high as the previous one this is called class B I think).Throught my own backtesting with Forex and the big commodities, I have to agree with this.
This reminds me of something I saw in the past with Bitcoin:
4 hour is pretty nice too
It works, sometimes... It seems to work most of the time when there is volatility and volume (if the price is slowly going up and there is divergence but no clear highs and lows it is worthless).
Hidden divergence:
At least with Bitcoin right now you got all kinds of resistances so you know where to enter.
Bitcoin RSI touched 70 and it acted as a resistance lol. Well for now.
This is how you run a liquidation bot btw:
Nota
Precision when Bitcoin is on so many exchanges is always a nuissance, this is what I mean:Ok so you have to use a global chart, there is coinsignal.trade, here we can see Bitcoin rejected Overhead resistance (Trendline & $4000), and is sitting slightly over the 100DMA.
charts.cointrader.pro/snapshot/toTkk
There is the BLX chart but right now it is 2 days late....
I do not know of another global thing. Maybe I should script something that takes the 15 biggest exchanges and makes an average?
So it is doji time. What Bitcoin does best. Wait wait wait. :)
Nota
My gut feeling tells me Bitcoin will go to 4150$ then fall.My gut feeling is almost always accurate.
I also bet we'll see shorts down to 15000 or even 10000.
And every crypto "believer" convinced this is it.
BTC tops late Feb, and falls early march (nothing new here).
Nota
The news are all so positive about Bitcoin/crypto.If the bagH0DLers are right and we are in a bottom just like the 2015 one, then it is soon the end of the road for BTC.
Probably going to have to wait 2-3 weeks maybe even more before knowing I bet. zzz
Nota
Just a little rant: my main broker does not have cotton & I do not have money with my brokers that do have it (I have like a few hundreds not even enough for 1 contract even with leverage).OF COURSE, I wanted to buy at the VERY bottom (to the cent), but could not, and it bounced rapidely, of course.
I said this already, but let me repeat it: quit wasting time with crypto.
Trading Bitcoin major moves with a smart percentage of your money like I do (let's say 25%) is fine, but stop focussing on it, move to other things.
Easy 5% bounce in a few days.
Plenty of much better opportunities elsewhere.
Cotton trades for about 1 billion a day, it is a professional market, no whining baghodlers sending you threats to ruin your life and when it bubbles it does not sit in flat complacency for 50 months.
BRUTAL.
Non speculators infested / retail noobs infested commodities (so all but Gold Oil pretty much) are so easy for me. I did not post often I think I have a few Soy & Copper ideas, all wins of course. Easy niche.
Who tf cares about the new shinny tech lmao?
Actually none of the big names made their fortunes with new shinny tech.
These things really are a noob magnet.
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