BitcoinViés de alta
BTC (Prj.2019.P04.E01).MACRO Level Analysis
Atualizado
Keeping this post at the Macro level
******************************************************
There are a few things that we need to watch in order to gauge where we are at and what are we to watch\look for (to accepting that the continuation of the Bull trend is in play).
At the "Micro level" TA is still difficult and complex as many scenario's are in play. With these, I will continue posting separate TA as I see new developments (either confirmation or what to look for).
******************************************************
Peter Brandt, mentioned a similar MA trend and hence I created this chart to find the specific details.
This interesting fact coupled with other observations are included into this post.
Note: These idea's are gathered from Trader's TA's (I follow\respect), so I can't take full credit.
I just added some specific's and clarity into the charts...they usually don't.
Now >
The 3 Day chart can and is useful for finding the middle ground for Macro level analysis.
The 1 Day is useful but it doesn't really help at the Macro level.
The weekly and monthly does however we miss-out some opportunities or its late to react, hence I like the 3 Day charts as well.
So going with the above 3D chart, one can observe the following:
*********************************************************************
a) In the 2015 to 2017 bull trend, the price kept in touch with the 28 MA. Hence dropping below the 28 MA is acceptable and is to be expect sooner or later.
b) The RSI trend kept in touch with many points as per the highlighted red area in the chart. So one would expect this to happen soon.
We can observe the RSI trend never went below this red zone, during the bull trend.
c) We can see throughout this period, we had consolidation with some bullish formations over a wide date range.
Our current scenario, fits into the bull trend and has for now a relatively short time frame compared to the other trends.
d) We can also acknowledge some strong pullback in price.
With the WEEKLY chart, we can observer the following:
*******************************************************************
e) Regarding the RSI, the areas circles on the chart, indicate the occasions where there was a healthy consolidation period and drop in the momentum\RSI where the level kept above this ~53% level.
As for now, it would not be unexpected (actually expected) for it to slip lower as per all other occasions of (major moves) consolidations.
f) As per the chart, we also have the fib.pitchfork which graphically shows the channels and there corresponding fib. levels. Maybe we can take this as assumption, to assist in the micro level TA.
We are currently operating between the 0.382 and 0.5 Macro fib level.
g) Referring to the close up of the weekly chart, we can see some indication as to where we are operating > the upper quadrant of this pattern, above the mean line (brown) of the Macro channel.
The blue highlighted triangle is were it seems for now where we are having consolidation and a area to watch, hence closer to an imminent breakout to the up direction.
If the price, weekly candle stick closes below this area, I would assume that the RSI will also drop and look to touching the red highlighted area, like all other consolidations in the 2015-2017 bull run.
Note where the wicks touch, this also is a hit as to where the resistance and supports are.
I hope this TA helps, as it helped me reset my focus as to what to look for to go all in (why, because I sold in the high 13 Ks)
Please click the "like" if this was helpful and\or agree with the TA.
Regards,
SSari
******************************************************
There are a few things that we need to watch in order to gauge where we are at and what are we to watch\look for (to accepting that the continuation of the Bull trend is in play).
At the "Micro level" TA is still difficult and complex as many scenario's are in play. With these, I will continue posting separate TA as I see new developments (either confirmation or what to look for).
******************************************************
Peter Brandt, mentioned a similar MA trend and hence I created this chart to find the specific details.
This interesting fact coupled with other observations are included into this post.
Note: These idea's are gathered from Trader's TA's (I follow\respect), so I can't take full credit.
I just added some specific's and clarity into the charts...they usually don't.
Now >
The 3 Day chart can and is useful for finding the middle ground for Macro level analysis.
The 1 Day is useful but it doesn't really help at the Macro level.
The weekly and monthly does however we miss-out some opportunities or its late to react, hence I like the 3 Day charts as well.
So going with the above 3D chart, one can observe the following:
*********************************************************************
a) In the 2015 to 2017 bull trend, the price kept in touch with the 28 MA. Hence dropping below the 28 MA is acceptable and is to be expect sooner or later.
b) The RSI trend kept in touch with many points as per the highlighted red area in the chart. So one would expect this to happen soon.
We can observe the RSI trend never went below this red zone, during the bull trend.
c) We can see throughout this period, we had consolidation with some bullish formations over a wide date range.
Our current scenario, fits into the bull trend and has for now a relatively short time frame compared to the other trends.
d) We can also acknowledge some strong pullback in price.
With the WEEKLY chart, we can observer the following:
*******************************************************************
e) Regarding the RSI, the areas circles on the chart, indicate the occasions where there was a healthy consolidation period and drop in the momentum\RSI where the level kept above this ~53% level.
As for now, it would not be unexpected (actually expected) for it to slip lower as per all other occasions of (major moves) consolidations.
f) As per the chart, we also have the fib.pitchfork which graphically shows the channels and there corresponding fib. levels. Maybe we can take this as assumption, to assist in the micro level TA.
We are currently operating between the 0.382 and 0.5 Macro fib level.
g) Referring to the close up of the weekly chart, we can see some indication as to where we are operating > the upper quadrant of this pattern, above the mean line (brown) of the Macro channel.
The blue highlighted triangle is were it seems for now where we are having consolidation and a area to watch, hence closer to an imminent breakout to the up direction.
If the price, weekly candle stick closes below this area, I would assume that the RSI will also drop and look to touching the red highlighted area, like all other consolidations in the 2015-2017 bull run.
Note where the wicks touch, this also is a hit as to where the resistance and supports are.
I hope this TA helps, as it helped me reset my focus as to what to look for to go all in (why, because I sold in the high 13 Ks)
Please click the "like" if this was helpful and\or agree with the TA.
Regards,
SSari
Nota
Still above the MANota
Based on Francis (MarketSniper) I agree with his explanationNota
Nota
My bullish divergence hypothesisNota
getting there on the 3 Day chartNota
Nota
Weekly updateNota
Current status: This 3 Daily chart, the 200 EMA and SMA have not crossed yet and the price has not hit the 50 EMA. The RSI can and maybe should have hit the red line.
This Daily chart, demonstrates the 20, 50, 100 EMA confluence in the past to the present situation. It meets the requirement for the bull trend to continue
The WEEKLY chart, close up demonstrates its still above the bearish region (by staying in the blue shaded region). Weekly candlestick engulfs the previous candle.
Discord: discord.com/invite/vb4hbP88vb (TradeToProspa)
Telegram: t.me/TprospaTradersbot
This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
Telegram: t.me/TprospaTradersbot
This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
Publicações relacionadas
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.