BTC - LONG VIEW - UPDATE

7 de jan. de 2022

This is an update to another chart which presumed the top came in April of 2021. With the new ATH in November, I thought it appropriate to update the chart.

With that new ATH of November 10th (69k lol) this bull run can no longer be said to have run short. In fact, it resembles the bull run from four years ago even more.

In both 2017 and 2021

• BTC reached its ATH around 1.5 years after halving.
  
• BTC reached its ATH around 1065 days from the bottom.
  
• BTC broke its the previous bull run's ATH around 200 days from the halving.
  
  On the basis of these and other similarities evident in the chart, I predict the following:
  
  • BTC reaches bottom around November of 2024 (or Fall in any case), but my guess is around the midterm elections.
    
  • Bottom will be around 15k, give or take a couple of grand.
    
  • After that, BTC begins to slowly rise, eventually breaking previous ATH of 69k after the next halving event in 2024, but probably in the Q1 of 2025.
    
  • New ATH reached in Q4 of 2025, probably around 150k.
  
  
  This is just my game plan, not financial advice, and its subject to change if the model is invalidated. The most obvious invalidation is if we get a new ATH this year.

7 de jan. de 2022

Nota

Edit:
Should say "BTC reaches bottom around November of 2022 (or fall in any case)," instead of 2024.

13 de nov. de 2022

Trade fechado: objetivo atingido

I called it.

14 de jan. de 2023

Nota

Looks like that was the bottom. Nailed the exact price and day a year ahead of time. Bags loaded for the long haul.

Let's see if next stage of the prediction holds true:

- Up slowly from here - rally to 30-40k in first half of 2023, then grinds back down to 17-20k over the second half of 2023.
- up only begins in 2024
- new highs (above 69k) reached in early 2025
- new ATH and top ~150k reached end of 2025 (Oct-Nov)
- 2026 down only to 20k or so
- 2027 and onwards - end of the massive money making cycles - BTC falls in the hands of big boys and moves like SPX