Part of my ongoing analysis if Bitcoin movements (see links below). Please hit the LIKE and leave comments below to encourage these posts. Follow this IDEA for updates, follow ME to be notified of new Ideas as posted.
After a highly volatile week in all markets, most seem to finding equilibrium. Bitcoin retrace thus far looks to be a "textbook" example, and thus scary perhaps. If the uptrend is to continue, bulls can give up at most one more support if at all.
$ 8136-8205 is the Likely Target from my measurements. $ 7700-7800 is the absolute lowest needed to keep uptrend. $ 7275-7413 is panic zone, break below opens a large void.
Of course, I have had total FAILS on some ideas too, not going to pretend. But all of my plots show PRECISE entries, TIGHT stops, and EXACT targets. Precision is the way of the Fib. Almost every turn happens at a Fib Line.
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Nota
Not much to update :(
Just oscillating between Fibs BUT, this is typical of a Wave 4. So at least it seems to be adding credibility to the wave count.
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Zoom IN (1h) for a closer look at that bounce again Not much of an ABC structure in there. So that was probably NOT all of wave 4.
So at this point I am leaning towards the "Green" path which would lend itself nicely to EW. enough room for an ABC to develop within wave (4).
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IE: Not much to report other than Green path looks most likely right now.
Zoom IN (5 min) to see the last bounce perfectly on a fib
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SUMMARY: - one more dip still likely based on wave structure. - bounce looks to have ABC with 5-3-5 layout. - adjusted zones make 9309 the INVALIDATION level
Zoom IN (13 min) to see why it fell short a bit looks like the purple 6.236 was the top. was anticipating the 6.618 at least.
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Zoom IN more (3 min) for a closer look at the drop which leads to two observations: 1) five wave substructure implies a "wave 1 of 5" 2) purple fib is in control, with its 2.618 holding it down
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SUMMARY: - red wave 4 in original chart looks done. - w4 fell short of target by a little bit, but close - possible wave 1 (five part) of red 5 may be done - wave 5 very likely under way.
And what a wave 5 this far! Market Wide dump continues. Now almost at the first possible target
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Zoom IN (5 min) for a look at the drop this far Parabolic fib captures it quite well. and indicates either 8230 or 8113. Perfectly inline with original tagret.
That wee bit of a bounce ahead of targets is a decent sign of this wave slowing down.
Went kinda deep into the zone but we have a bounce Not very confident in this bounce yet, let see.
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Nota
Another clean PIng
My lack of confidence in the bounce just above seems to have been justified. We dropped to the lower "Uptrend at Risk" zone and got a nice ping Normally I would say this is very likely the bottom. BUT, risk-off sentiment is very strong, and Oil dropped 20% at open! Germans and UK stock markets were down 10% at one point. US futures trading was halted after 5% drop, likely to continue in US session.
So it all comes down to the Monday NY session. If they keep selling risk assets, btc will take another hit If we get some good news and stocks bounce, THEN we might have a bottom here...
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