BTC DAILY UPDATE (day 162)

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Previous analysis/position: “Expecting sharp reversal to the downside if we cannot break $7,150 in the next 12 - 24 hours” | Short ETH:USD from $450
Patterns: 1 hour bear flag. Believe that the Wyckoff accumulation that was discussed yesterday is now invalid due to how far we have pull back from $8,500.
Horizontal support and resistance: weak S: $6,400 | strong S: $5,900 - $6,100 | Weak R: $6,500 | Expecting strong R at $6,800
BTCUSDSHORTS: Continue to build and starting to approach overbought zones. 54% long: 46% short. Surprised this is still favoring longs after yesterday’s sell off.
Funding Rates: shorts pays longs 0.0561%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -11.32% | 26 = -12.59% | Just made bearish cross on the daily.
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -9.28% | 128 = -16.95%
FIB’s: 0.236 = $5,920 | 0.382 = $8,496
Candlestick analysis: Bearish marubozu forming on the daily
Ichimoku Cloud: Fell below the daily cloud. Tenkan-Sen is angling down sharply for a bearish crossover.
TD’ Sequential: Perfected 9 on the buy setup
Visible Range: Point of control over last 24 hours = $6,424 | POC over last 5 days = $7,000 | High volume nodes at $6,500 when looking back 3 months.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = -4.71% | 24h = -11.66% | 1w = -17.59% | 2w = -23.09% | -7.14%
Bollinger Bands: Below bottom band on daily. $5,396 is bottom band on weekly which I expect the price to test at some point.
Trendline: Can fit the 1 hour chart into a nice trend
Daily Trend: Bearish af'
Fractals: Next down fractal is $6,078 | Up remains at $8,280
On Balance Volume: Coming down harder and faster on daily.
ADX: ADX is testing 25 for support and still angling down. Would have expected it to move up with this most recent sell off. -DI and + DI are starting to diverge in a bearish manner on daily and weekly.
Chaikin Money Flow: Div' in weekly as it continues to climb upward. < -0.05 on daily
RSI (30 setting): Expect it to continue falling to 37 - 40 on daily. Weekly at 48.36 (hasn’t been below 48 since 2015)
Stoch: Bearish cross on weekly, daily failed to make a bullish cross and just hit the lowest reading since 2011.

Summary: Perfected buy setup on the TD' Sequential is the most important indicator to me right now. Expected a 1-4 candle correction to the upside to follow the daily close. If you are not in a position then I would strongly advise against opening a short right now. If we do get a bounce then it will provide a great selling opportunity. I am expecting strong resistance at $6,800 and do not think the bounce will exceed that price. If you opened a short when I recommended at $8,160 then today could be a good time to cover 25% - 50% of the position.