#btc some thoughts

19 de nov. de 2019

thoughts on chart

23 de nov. de 2019

Nota

i think the most painful thing to occur, is that we reverse around this area or a bit lower, and then we go back up to higher than 10500, and then go down to 8k.

everyone now, including myself, is looking to exit a bunch of crypto on the dead cat of this parabolic down after the dead cat - im going to try to do that on the incoming bounce. However, Ive noticed markets getting these expanding megaphone/wedges often, used to see them on dash and btc. Anyway, the issue with them is the conflicting signals that mess ppl up, technically HHs followed by HLs, so what is the trend? "well noob you just zoom out to check the high time frame bias and do that" ok sure pro trader, pick your TF you have your trade bias. This would be on the 4hour so multiday / weeks setups. You wanna be perma bull just make a yearly chart and tell me about HTF bias.

So, to mess ppl up, including my own view, we would fool around 8300, fakeout down a few hundred $, then just push up. Stop around 93/94 and everyone keeps shorting, then we move up to new local highs pop them, everyone gets margin rekt (why? cause ppl are shorting to rebuy, we went to 6700, we cant just double in value), then ppl try to buy again cause everyone on twitter/TV say "the trend is now bull, new highs incoming", add some china news or something, then boom, back to 8k mid of this wedge. "its just price action bro", yah well its to mess up margin traders who are way over 100k leveraged btc positions. Hmm i gotta check the COTs on cme later....

Otherwise if btc is gonna be nice (and theres too many longs), we might go to 8/9.xk and then just go all the way down to the doom callers, 6.7/5.8/5.1/4.5 etc. Sentiment is bad, ppl dont wanna be in any alts, and they cant buy any, they have no btc, they also dont want to buy btc with new fiat cause it all looks like crap. They cant sell the alts because they invested too much and worth little, or just dont want to.

Have fun guys!

24 de nov. de 2019

Nota

6 de dez. de 2019

Nota

so didnt work out exactly, often as trading goes.
if i see 78/8 k as support ill think maybe up more. in a crazy dream we might see a completion of this expanding wedge and like 11500 usd, which would make the whole daily chart look like some chop seen on lower TFs. anyway, never mind that for now. I am bias to the downside in general. depending on funding and open interest on bitmex. alts are also compressing for a move. will happen soon. btc up or down, alts/btc probably down. if they pump together...well its been so long i can hardly imagine it.