BTC-USD where will we go from now ?

Atualizado

this is a continued post from this post which is too long to read now

BTC-USD time to get out of ALTS and trade bitcoin exclusively

currently there are 3 scenes which I think it will happen
1. 7.15k is bottom (here), we will go up from here
2. go down to 6.8k-7k then pump from there (this is what majority is thinking). Will it happen ?
3. go down to 6.5k then pump from there

RSI on daily is approaching oversold soon . My vote is 3

Note: all of my posts are for learning and discussing purpose. Not financial advise

Nota

it looks to me that we are trying to build the similar fractal on april.
if so, this bull rally 's top should be at either 7.6k or 7.7k then we will head down to 7.1k again and then consolidation and then Bang , PUMP

Nota

no need to rush into the trade if you miss to buy the dip around 7.05k range. If we can't break 7.8k , it will be shot down again.
Right now I think I can only go max between 7.6k -7.7k and drop down to 7.1k-7.2k again

Nota

BTC has dropped as expected. The question now is whether btc will follow the same previous fractal or not. Meaning that it must stay above 7050$ (not make new low), bounce back, drop again, then continue on going up.
The best time to buy is to wait for a bottom confirmation . Meaning that we have to make sure new low won't be created before setting buy order as in the below chart

Nota

Look like we are approaching to the outer line of the wedge Like the april's fractal.
if we follow the april's fractal, we should see a pullback when we approach 7.64k-7.7k.
i hope bitcoin will follow april's fractal because it will make the bullish case becoming super strong.
Bullish case: april's fractal + 6th date on June (previously was Feb 6th, April 6th)

Nota

bull still has some steam to go higher. The price we have to take note here is at 7.81k which is at the 200 EMA line. if we can break it, we can assume that uptrend really starts because during the bear trend, we always dump when we try to reach the line (Dark color)

Nota

the longer we stay in consolidation like this, I think the higher chance we will retrace down again just like previous pumps

Nota

i did a small trade yesterday 's night "buy 7500, sell 7599$" and have no position now. I will either wait for a break above 7.81k (200 EMA line) or a retrace buy. I feel it is very risky to trade in the zone 7.6k -7.8k . Small zone but a lot of resistance so it is not worthy

Nota

here we go , a drop. Lately , most of bitcoin's bull flags are a sign of dump :)

Nota

if we stay above 7250$, very high chance that we will go up later
if we stay below 7250$, then we should observe to see whether btc will make new low or not

Nota

2 bullish patterns : Inverse Head and Shoulder + ascending triangle
if btc can break 7.6k, the 2 patterns ' target will be around 8.1k
however, from previous history, the 200 EMA (dark line) has proven a strong resistance . So 7.77k is a good place to start taking profit. If btc can break pass it, then it can go up to 8.1k

Nota

feel like we are going down more than going up. Ichimoku lines are cutting in downtrend mode

Nota

nevertheless, buy order should only be triggered with a break above 7600$ and hold

Nota

potential H and Shoulder with target as in chart

Nota

I will jump into bitcoin's train if it can break the 200 EMA (dark line)

Nota

we really need volume for these pumps. It is really be scary to get in below 8k$ :)

Nota

unless we break out with significant volume, it is doubtful that we can break 7764$ which is the 200 EMA 's resistance . RSI will definitely go oversold when it reaches that price. So i still think if we reach that price, we will be shot down

Nota

finally we are at decision time. Can bitcoin stay and hold above 200 EMA which will be a strong buy signal ?

Nota

it is very doubtful to me that we can do it because some reasons:
1. price is rising but volume is decreasing
2. rising wedge
3. strong resistance at 200 EMA
4. RSI near oversold zone now

Nota

some possible reversal zone .Ideally I want to see price bound at 7.1k range (not 7.5k or 7.3k). A drop below 7.1k will make us to see 6.4 tested.

Nota

spotting a hidden bullish divergence now. We might reach bottom . Well need at least 4 hr more to confirm

Nota

bull looks weak at the moment. Unless we can go above 200 EMA, we should drop down more

Nota

we have a strong bounce back today. I can clearly say that bottom is found at 7350$. We should expect a rally to 8k. Now it is the time to look for a pullback to get in

Nota

I have seen this double top many times. Sound like we might have a bull trap and we will drop
anyway, no break 7.7k = no buy.

Nota

lot of mixed signals between bull and bear.
We are currently in bull flag 4hr but also have a potentials Double top pattern. So we should only buy if bitcoin can break previous Top (blue line)

Nota

today's 1 Day candle is pretty important. It will decide btc's direction. Right now candle looks bad and bearish

Nota

my thought is that we might continue on going down if we can't break 7770$ during this weekend.
However, we definitely are close bottom now . This boringness and downness might last until June 13rd ( SEC's open meeting with everyone for question and answer).
if we look at the BTCUSDSHORT, it is on the rise now . However, its RSI daily are approaching oversold within 10 days if it keeps this speed rate.

Nota

I'm IN. kind of gambling because I don't wait for a break above 7.8k. However with a lot of good existing news + short is approaching overbought, I'm expecting a big green candle in next few days. People who are waiting outside won't have enough time to buy. Goodluck to you "bear players".

Nota

we have a rumor that bitcoin ETF has been accepted.

Nota

today's 1 Day candle is pretty important. If we can't form a bullish divergence on 1D chart RSI, it is very likely that we have to meet 6k range

Nota

2hr30 min more . RSIs are already in oversold but no divergence spotted yet. I still think it is too early to break the symmetric equilibrium. In addition, short has approached overbought on RSI daily. Heheh, 6.65k should be bottom for now. Time for a come back Mr bitcoin

Nota

look like 6.6k is a temporary strong support. We will have a bounce here. The question right now is " after the bounce, will we continue on dropping lower or not".
if we can break above 7.3k, i still have high hope for the further upward move
Unless we break below 6k, i give zero shit to all of the FUD posts.

Nota

short interest is rising very high. I m expecting a big short squeeze WITHIN this week.

Nota

this is an ideal time to open Long position

Nota

I know it is painful to watch btc's price now :).

Nota

lot of fear and uncertainty about the market now. Bearish sentiment is very strong. However, i still strongly believe that the bounce should come soon .

Nota

if i were a market manipulator, i definitely won't break below 6k$ this time. Why ?
1. if we break below 6k$, it will make it become obvious that Bear is totally in control. So all of the recovering bounces are just attempt to move price higher before going down lower. This will make the plan to become so OBVIOUS
2. if we don't break below 6k$, bull will still have chance. It will make it harder for people to decide whether it will go up more with the recovery bounce or go down later
3. RSI 's daily is in oversold zone. There is no exception. A bounce definitely will come. Selling below 6k$ now won't create mass panic . Just free money for anyone who buy at 6k$ :)

Nota

shorters , you are warned :)
if we carefully look at btc's chart, we can see that btc 's movement is very similar to April's movement now (MACD 1 day movement, RSI 1 day movement, and we are in symmetric triangle too). In addition, BTCUSDshort 1 day chart is forming bearish divergence
i have really very good feeling this time . Bull will be back strongly. Why ? we still have massy buy support at 6k$ and super Huge buy support at 5k.

JackieHuynh

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