BTC Short to 31-32k
So if you notice the parallel channels, the bottom of the larger parallel is at 31k to 32k and support from the previous resistance broke up. This lines up well for a drop to refill the gap in this area, but it's also the very bottom of the parallel channel so it lines up well. I don't know how long it's going to take, but it should happen eventually and then up and away.
Nota
In order for it to reach the bottom of the support channel and retest previous major resistance, now support, it needs to come down in around 50 days or so, but could do it on a wick into 60-70 days. So it could take a while, but I would say within a month and a half to 2 months is reasonable.Nota
It could still go up to the top of the parallel channel before dropping down, but it all lines up. It can always wick above the channel as well.Nota
active. I have read that it's happening soon, but my view is more long term. Like I said, WITHIN 50-70 days, more likely 50 because of where the channel lies. So could be today, could be in a week, but it has to re-test the 32 at some point.Nota
Still on track within the channel. Upper portion is within 48k, but could wick higher.Nota
I have no idea what will happen in the immediate short term. As I've said though, think it goes down within the time period above, again a macro view. It's not looking great. That 42k is very strong though. I think if we break that it will go down faster. Ultimately looking at 31k for top of 2nd blue box for support and then if that breaks around 25k in 1st blue box. Both are established support from low and have been tested as resistance multiple times and broke through. Also if you look at previous cycle it will show you the support, especially at 31-32k.Nota
Demand continues to go down from around 16k of BTC. Happened in 2018 cycle and it should take us down to target. Still had it around 48k max, but in the short term, I suppose it could go to 48k still and come back down.Nota
I follow a lot of traders and they all have their own views in macro and micro with all valid points. It's very interesting that many of these are matching up on some level with this view. The wyckoff distribution points down to similar or lower levels (that's distribution, not accumulation), there is bearish divergence since this rally started, the elliot wave count puts us in an a, b, c correction and possibly the end of a larger wave 5 or possibly a wave 3. There are other signs as well for the bearish case that lineup. However, on the bullish there is a massive descending wedge and in the short term, a ascending triangle that just got rejected, but could break through with a higher price target. I remember in 2017 we had a rally up after the high of 20k and it reached 13k or so. Many thought that would be the next big rally, but it was really in a downtrend still. This feels similar to that. Then you have the ETFs and big money, this wasn't exactly the same, but it was the same argument for the last two cycles that institutional money will save us and move higher and higher. These arguments were extremely similar. So this time will it be different? I think not. I think we are going to drop to 31-32k if not lower, like 20's, but not an all time low. It will be interesting to watch.Nota
I know the thinking of the bears is that we go to 48k, maybe 50k and then dump. Anything that has a consensus will probably not happen. Others are saying we go up to 54k and even higher. I feel like we get the rug pulled right now and I mean before we ever reach 46k or maybe right below and then boom. Wouldn't that be the way? It always seems to do something contrary to what people think. Liquidity is up there though so you would think we would go up and get it, but the market never does what I or anyone else thinks when we all think it. I know the thinking is, ETFs are approved, run up and then dump. If that's what everyone thinks, probably not, haha. Just saying, the market is tricky.Nota
Looks like we are getting the run up to grab liquidation. If there was a good spot to short, this would likely be it as it's near the top of the channel. This isn't financial advice, but thinking of opening a short here as I already closed out my earlier shorts because I was afraid this run up would happen. Looks like we could get a run up to 48k+ and then from information I've discussed recently with another trader, possible some sideways consolidation before a bigger drop correction.Nota
active, topped out right at about 48k, I can't believe how some of these alts are pumping hard. Unless it's the start of a new Wave 5, should just be part of the correction and keep dropping for Alts and end of BTC wave 5 I believe.Nota
I do not know if the Alts are going to drop is what I'm saying. If it is part of the ABC correction, this is just temporary pump which still lines up before further down. If it was the beginning of a wave 5, would be much bigger. The larger Wave 4 down could have been just that and this could be a start of a new wave for many alts. I don't think that's the case, but still room to pump on the corrective wave.Nota
I picked up sizable short x5 leverage at $48,500 that filled while I was sleeping and by the time I woke up, it was up 20%+. I still don't know if the little push up is over, but if it is, this was a good time. I still believe this market is going down to 31-32k or lower and I will be patient.Nota
Clearly headed down. That weekly candle with the massive wick was brutal. It's just a matter of time before it hits the target or lower.Nota
the more I look at it for support, RSI, previous drops pre-halving, etc, the more I think 25k - 32k will be bottom. It's very hard to say honestly and nobody has a crystal ball. I would be happy to buy at 32-33k to be honest. I'm actually looking to re-buy some alts like AVAX, ADA, ZEC, and some others on this correction. I have always been more of an alt trader. I bought ADA at .24 cents which was nice, but made some bone headed trades on the way up and missed the massive gains. I am not so fixated on any one coin right now, the more red the better. Fire sale soon, but not yet.Nota
In the short term, we are oversold on the 4 hour and so are many of the alts so I would expect a bounce here, but I honestly don't believe we get any massive push up. It's more down here IMO. It would be a good time to exit or enter shorts IMO if you haven't already once the RSI peaks. The daily still shows we have more room to drop. It's just one indicator anyway, so it's not the be all of predicting of course, but it helps. I am selling shorts at 4 hour and re-buying at higher levels with a new short. Honestly doesn't always work and I lose more if I just hold, but it protects me for spikes up too. It's worked well so far the last couple of days.Nota
Well, got wrecked on some alt shorts. I will lay off the alt shorts and just see what the market does. That reversal candle was pretty strong, and we could push up near the recent high again. I still think we will drop to the target of 31-32k, even on a wick, or lower. It always happens pre-halving, the volume is dropping, the RSI is overbought on the weekly. Wyckoff is going through it's motions and is due for a lower bottom than what I have. It's just a matter of time and then bull market. I am not trading this right now, I just have one long term hold on a small alt, just waiting.Nota
Also, we are hitting the bottom of the upward trendline from the start of this upward movement. Honestly, a close above this could be an issue, but it's not definitive. If this is just a bounce, and it's what I think it is, we shouldn't go higher than about 43800 or so, about 50 percent level of the drop. That would be right on par with a dead cat bounce. Although 50 percent is a good metric, as long as it doesn't surpass the previous high around 49k, then it can technically be a dead cat bounce which of course is only apparent in retrospect. It does have decreasing volume with increasing price, so that's another indicator that would line up. Again, I already mentioned the RSI, the lazy bear wavetrender is a great one to use in conjunction, at the red line there.Nota
So broke a new high, resistance around 50.5k surpassed and 52k is some resistance right now. It could run higher just to drop fast. It's unpredictable, but maybe not in the timeline I was looking for, I still say we come down to re-test this within the next month or two. It's still within a Wyckoff distribution with this run up and set for a pretty big fall to around 31-32k or lower.Nota
I don't know that anyone expected this surge. It's crazy really. Yes, I still believe we get a major correction and a major fall. All Technical Analysis is out of the window with BTC right now.Nota
Still active, low to mid 30k is my target
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