XBTFX

Bitcoin: just a short reversal

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Inflation is still not over. Even if some investors had their doubts during the previous period, from last week there are no more questions about it. The released PCI figures during the last week showed an increase of 0.6% in January, bringing it to 4.7% on a yearly level. This is an indicator mostly watched by the FED as an indicator of future inflation development. Adding to it a strong jobs market and earnings is a certain indication that the FED will have no other options than to further increase interest rates. Analysts are pointing to the high probability that further increases will last at least till the mid of this year. With such a move the idea of “soft landing” might be put under question. The crypto market also reacted to the news during the previous week, and reverted a bit to the downside to price the expectations on further monetary tightening.

BTC started previous week by testing resistance line at $25K, reaching highest weekly level at $25.229. The rest of the week was more focused to the downside, when the coin reached lowest weekly level at $22.6K. Level of $23K is a short-stop for BTC, between support and resistance lines, in which sense, BTC finished the week around this level. RSI took downtrend but only to the level of 50, which is a breaking point and will show whether the market is ready to push the price down to the oversold side, or it is still not ready for such a move. Moving average of 50 days is strongly diverging from its MA200 counterpart, confirming the Golden cross which occurred two weeks ago. Trend reversal might be in store; however, it will take some time in the future.

Current charts are pointing to a possibility for BTC to continue with its current move at least until the level from mid-February, which is around $22K. There is no clear indication that the support line at $20K might be tested in the coming period. On the opposite side, there is some probability that $23K might be tested for one more time, in case that short term stop at $23K resists the selling orders.

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