UPDATED Apr 4, 2018 - Bitcoin in it's darkest hour
Hello gang.
So a quick update. I think that drop has invalidated Scenario B, which took wave 4 to the All-Time-High Trend line 2. In the least, it's definitely hurt the probability of it going there. I've removed it from the graph, to simplify the TA.
The scenario I've shown here are Scenario A ... this assumes that we are still in mini wave 3 of an impulse wave down. It basically treats the small rally and reversal as "noise". It assumes we will have a hard bounce off 6k (double bottom test) before starting mini wave 4. Mini wave 4 stops short of the wave 1 bottom, and bounces off a Fib line (0.786) before making it's final plunge to the bottom. This assumes mini wave 5 is shorter than mini wave 3, which keeps Elliot Wave theory in check. The box shown at the bottom right is the target range for the bottom of mini wave 5 keeping these "rules" in mind, and there is support at 5.4k, 5k, 4.5k and 4k that all fall in that box, so anyone of those could be the point we bounce from.
The other scenario I've shown here is Scenario C (B has been deleted) ... this assumes we finished mini wave 3 at 6.4k a few days back, and the recent rally to 7.5k is mini wave 4 completed. This means we would be in mini-wave 5 now, and the final wave to the mid-term bottom (and perhaps the very bottom). I've explained that comment below. If Scenario C is correct, then the box on the lower left is the potential target for the mini and grand wave 5 bottom, and there is support at 6k (double bottom test before a good bounce), 5.4k and 5k. Anyone of those could be the point we bounce from. A double bottom test at 6k to confirm "the bottom" would make sense in my mind ... but who knows what the big guys have planned to do with BTC.
OK, so could this be the final bottom after a grand impulse wave from 20k to ??. Some will say that my grand wave is incorrect, and wave 1 is from 20k to 6k ... possible. That would put us in grand wave 3 right now, and therefore after some reprieve in a grand wave 4 ... we still have to form grand wave 5 and this would take us to a very low price (perhaps then those predicting a bottom at 1k to 3k will finally claim victory, but I think it will be months before we can get to those levels). Others have drawn the same lines and called it an ABC correction (20k to 6k is wave A, 6k to 11.7k is wave B, and now we are in wave C). This theory essentially means the grand wave 5 I have shown in this chart is wave C, and the outcome is the same.
Remember, only a fool counts on one outcome!
Please do not use this information for investment purposes. This is for educational purposes only.
So a quick update. I think that drop has invalidated Scenario B, which took wave 4 to the All-Time-High Trend line 2. In the least, it's definitely hurt the probability of it going there. I've removed it from the graph, to simplify the TA.
The scenario I've shown here are Scenario A ... this assumes that we are still in mini wave 3 of an impulse wave down. It basically treats the small rally and reversal as "noise". It assumes we will have a hard bounce off 6k (double bottom test) before starting mini wave 4. Mini wave 4 stops short of the wave 1 bottom, and bounces off a Fib line (0.786) before making it's final plunge to the bottom. This assumes mini wave 5 is shorter than mini wave 3, which keeps Elliot Wave theory in check. The box shown at the bottom right is the target range for the bottom of mini wave 5 keeping these "rules" in mind, and there is support at 5.4k, 5k, 4.5k and 4k that all fall in that box, so anyone of those could be the point we bounce from.
The other scenario I've shown here is Scenario C (B has been deleted) ... this assumes we finished mini wave 3 at 6.4k a few days back, and the recent rally to 7.5k is mini wave 4 completed. This means we would be in mini-wave 5 now, and the final wave to the mid-term bottom (and perhaps the very bottom). I've explained that comment below. If Scenario C is correct, then the box on the lower left is the potential target for the mini and grand wave 5 bottom, and there is support at 6k (double bottom test before a good bounce), 5.4k and 5k. Anyone of those could be the point we bounce from. A double bottom test at 6k to confirm "the bottom" would make sense in my mind ... but who knows what the big guys have planned to do with BTC.
OK, so could this be the final bottom after a grand impulse wave from 20k to ??. Some will say that my grand wave is incorrect, and wave 1 is from 20k to 6k ... possible. That would put us in grand wave 3 right now, and therefore after some reprieve in a grand wave 4 ... we still have to form grand wave 5 and this would take us to a very low price (perhaps then those predicting a bottom at 1k to 3k will finally claim victory, but I think it will be months before we can get to those levels). Others have drawn the same lines and called it an ABC correction (20k to 6k is wave A, 6k to 11.7k is wave B, and now we are in wave C). This theory essentially means the grand wave 5 I have shown in this chart is wave C, and the outcome is the same.
Remember, only a fool counts on one outcome!
Please do not use this information for investment purposes. This is for educational purposes only.
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