BTC/USD - Weekly, Monthly, Daily, 4H, 1H
Bitcoin is hanging in a fairly critical area in the balance between a new Bull market and Bear market continuation. There are many indications, technical & fundamental, in favor of both. Purely based on the technicals that have laid out for us since the start of the bear market in 2018, Bitcoin is still in a bear market until proven otherwise. As someone trying to trade the waves of the market, you can never be certain on any direction, and putting aside any biases shows that there are too many critical levels that have yet to be broken to simply ignore the bearish possibility lying ahead.
Weekly
-Looking at the weekly, I see two strong bearish possibilities that are still on the table. The primary being a Macro Flat correction, followed by a potential Macro Triangle.
-In either scenario of a bearish break, I am looking for higher lows. Therefore the most brutal part of the bear market is likely finished in my opinion.
-Looking at the local price action, Bitcoin has encountered bearish pressure at the .618 with the resistance at 12.5k. This point marks the minimum requirement of a potential Macro correction, for either the Flat or the Triangle. Meaning that, technically speaking, Bitcoin could be finished here and is beginning its descent for the final leg of the Macro correction.
-In the event of a Bearish break from here and not the 1:1 extension at 15k-16k, my bias would be towards a Triangle unless it comes down impulsively - which would be indicative of a C wave. For a triangle, we can expect
BTC to come down in 3 wave fashion to a minimum of 8k. But I would be more inclined to lean towards lower targets around 7.5k - 6k closer to the .618.
-Confirmation of a Bearish break would be a break below 10k - in my opinion. If this is bullish, there is really no need to break back below 10k. For me personally, this would serve as a strong indication of a loss of bullish
momentum towards the upside.
-Following the potential final leg to the downside, we can expect continuation toward the upside. Therefore my plan would be to line buy orders following down with the correction.
Monthly
-The monthly chart is potentially more indicative of a Bearish outcome rather than a Bullish one, with the recent candle close potentially printing a Spinning Top reversal candle.
Daily
-What we see unfolding on the Daily chart is a bounce as a reaction to Hidden Bullish Divergence. Based on this, we can expect continuation to the upside locally, but the potential targets vary.
-For the more bullish case, we do not want to be bouncing correctively unless we are looking for an ending diagonal. If something starts with 5 waves, then it needs to end with 5 waves. And as we move on to smaller time frames, I have a feeling that this isn't moving as impulsive as we would like it to be from a locally bullish perspective.
-Therefore we should expect potential further corrective movement to the downside following this correction to the upside.
4 Hour
-The 4 hour appears to be extremely corrective. However, if this turns impulsive, this is what I would be looking to potentially see.
-If this continues correctively, this is something that I would be looking for. The local ABC would serve as a connector for a larger WXY correction.
-In either scenario, we should see a pullback to the .618 around $11,375 before continuation higher.
-Either way, the pullback should make a potential desirable long opportunity. However, I like to understand the points where these separate and the reason why. So although we can expect local upside,
12K should be an important area to watch because of the potential downside that could follow.
-We can expect to encounter sell pressure at the .5 Retracement as well as the .618 Retracement highlighted in yellow.
1 Hour
-The 1 hour appears to be telling the same corrective story as the 4 hour.
Weekly
-Looking at the weekly, I see two strong bearish possibilities that are still on the table. The primary being a Macro Flat correction, followed by a potential Macro Triangle.
-In either scenario of a bearish break, I am looking for higher lows. Therefore the most brutal part of the bear market is likely finished in my opinion.
-Looking at the local price action, Bitcoin has encountered bearish pressure at the .618 with the resistance at 12.5k. This point marks the minimum requirement of a potential Macro correction, for either the Flat or the Triangle. Meaning that, technically speaking, Bitcoin could be finished here and is beginning its descent for the final leg of the Macro correction.
-In the event of a Bearish break from here and not the 1:1 extension at 15k-16k, my bias would be towards a Triangle unless it comes down impulsively - which would be indicative of a C wave. For a triangle, we can expect
BTC to come down in 3 wave fashion to a minimum of 8k. But I would be more inclined to lean towards lower targets around 7.5k - 6k closer to the .618.
-Confirmation of a Bearish break would be a break below 10k - in my opinion. If this is bullish, there is really no need to break back below 10k. For me personally, this would serve as a strong indication of a loss of bullish
momentum towards the upside.
-Following the potential final leg to the downside, we can expect continuation toward the upside. Therefore my plan would be to line buy orders following down with the correction.
Monthly
-The monthly chart is potentially more indicative of a Bearish outcome rather than a Bullish one, with the recent candle close potentially printing a Spinning Top reversal candle.
Daily
-What we see unfolding on the Daily chart is a bounce as a reaction to Hidden Bullish Divergence. Based on this, we can expect continuation to the upside locally, but the potential targets vary.
-For the more bullish case, we do not want to be bouncing correctively unless we are looking for an ending diagonal. If something starts with 5 waves, then it needs to end with 5 waves. And as we move on to smaller time frames, I have a feeling that this isn't moving as impulsive as we would like it to be from a locally bullish perspective.
-Therefore we should expect potential further corrective movement to the downside following this correction to the upside.
4 Hour
-The 4 hour appears to be extremely corrective. However, if this turns impulsive, this is what I would be looking to potentially see.
-If this continues correctively, this is something that I would be looking for. The local ABC would serve as a connector for a larger WXY correction.
-In either scenario, we should see a pullback to the .618 around $11,375 before continuation higher.
-Either way, the pullback should make a potential desirable long opportunity. However, I like to understand the points where these separate and the reason why. So although we can expect local upside,
12K should be an important area to watch because of the potential downside that could follow. -We can expect to encounter sell pressure at the .5 Retracement as well as the .618 Retracement highlighted in yellow.
1 Hour
-The 1 hour appears to be telling the same corrective story as the 4 hour.
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