BTC Meets First Major Test at 1.61 Extension.
Atualizado
Firstly, apologies for lack of updates here of late. I've been side-tracked with real world events with limited time available to do online stuff.
I have to admit I also find it rather disheartening when you post on TradingView 1/3 of comments tell you not to be a trader, another 1/3 tell you not have to have a view. Then there are a few good ones and the ChatGPT bots posting summaries of your OP. I'd like it more if we could focus on trading discussions. Call me old fashioned.
Anyway ...
BTC has reached the 1.61 extension of the previous big drop. This is a pivotal point in the decision as to whether this is a true breakout or not. I find most reactions from 1.61s in this type of setup will fall into one of three categories;
2/3 of these setups give a drop of 25% or more.
The 1.61 clean breakout I'd consider to be less likely in this setup since most of the time when we're going to have a clean 1.61 break we have a 1.27 pullback. Marked in purple is what I'd expect to see in a pending 1.61 break. The 1.27 hitting, there then being the classic retest of the broken high and then the run at 1.61.
snapshot
When this happens, my bias always skews a bit more towards the 1.61 breaking.
Another thing I tend to see when a 1.61 is going to break is there's a near miss of the 1.61 before the break.
snapshot
My rule to remember this is;
"When we're going to break a 1.61, the market does things to make it feel like it will not break. The traps and false starts. In the times we're going to hold, the market does things that make it look like it has to break (slamming right into the level with velocity).
Given that I put the generic odds at 2/3 we see a drop of over 20% and I also think when we use filters the odds of the clean breakout are lowered by the factors mentioned - and since the trade pays 300 - 400% of what it risks at this level, it's a no brainer for me to try to fade here.
Look for the fade around 100K. If we trade 75% be proactive in locking in profits. And if 127 break then we might see complete failure of the uptrend.
This is the current plan. Valid while we're unable to break the 1.61 resistance (Quick quit if we do break, because I consider one of the known outcomes of this to be a clean 40% rally).
Bias and plans re-assessed if we trade 80K. At that point we have a big pending support.
I have to admit I also find it rather disheartening when you post on TradingView 1/3 of comments tell you not to be a trader, another 1/3 tell you not have to have a view. Then there are a few good ones and the ChatGPT bots posting summaries of your OP. I'd like it more if we could focus on trading discussions. Call me old fashioned.
Anyway ...
BTC has reached the 1.61 extension of the previous big drop. This is a pivotal point in the decision as to whether this is a true breakout or not. I find most reactions from 1.61s in this type of setup will fall into one of three categories;
- False breakout (1.61 head fake) = Doom.
- 1.61 to 1.27 pullback = Bullish pattern but 25% drop first.
- 1.61 break = Moon. Usually see 2.61 which would be 40% rally.
2/3 of these setups give a drop of 25% or more.
The 1.61 clean breakout I'd consider to be less likely in this setup since most of the time when we're going to have a clean 1.61 break we have a 1.27 pullback. Marked in purple is what I'd expect to see in a pending 1.61 break. The 1.27 hitting, there then being the classic retest of the broken high and then the run at 1.61.
snapshot
When this happens, my bias always skews a bit more towards the 1.61 breaking.
Another thing I tend to see when a 1.61 is going to break is there's a near miss of the 1.61 before the break.
snapshot
My rule to remember this is;
"When we're going to break a 1.61, the market does things to make it feel like it will not break. The traps and false starts. In the times we're going to hold, the market does things that make it look like it has to break (slamming right into the level with velocity).
Given that I put the generic odds at 2/3 we see a drop of over 20% and I also think when we use filters the odds of the clean breakout are lowered by the factors mentioned - and since the trade pays 300 - 400% of what it risks at this level, it's a no brainer for me to try to fade here.
Look for the fade around 100K. If we trade 75% be proactive in locking in profits. And if 127 break then we might see complete failure of the uptrend.
This is the current plan. Valid while we're unable to break the 1.61 resistance (Quick quit if we do break, because I consider one of the known outcomes of this to be a clean 40% rally).
Bias and plans re-assessed if we trade 80K. At that point we have a big pending support.
Trade ativo
Congrats to BTC bulls on getting 100K. 
Aviso legal
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