2025-01-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Market is in balance around 94k. Bulls want to test the bear trend line and bears want to get below 94000 to test 90000 again. Market is contracting so don’t make this more complicated as it years. Trade near the extremes and not too much in the middle.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 90000 - 101000
bull case: Bulls had their second leg up but it was weak and market then went sideways below 97k. They need a break above 97400 for more upside and their next obvious target is the big bear trend line, which probably not many expect to be broken on the next hit. They are still trading above the 1h ema, so they are in control and favored for more upside until we trade below it again.
Invalidation is below 89000.
bear case: Bears need to close a 1h bar below the ema to turn the market neutral again. If they can make 98000 resistance, it would show strength and I don’t think many bulls will hold on to longs if we can’t make it to 100k tomorrow/Thursday. Otherwise bears do not have much on the higher time frames since Monday was so bullish. I expect more bears to come around closer to 100k. Always ask yourself if you had to have a position right now, which side would it be and where would your stop be? Being a bear here is hard because your stop would have to be 103k and that’s 6k points. 1:1 r:r would need to hit 91k. Really not an ideal trade.
Invalidation is above 101000.
short term: Neutral 94k - 98k. Bulls are in control as long as we are above 94000. We are in an expanding triangle inside a bigger contracting triangle. Market is in breakout mode and we will probably see a breakout later this week or next.
medium-long term: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good.
current swing trade: Want to see market closer to the big bear trend line and then more selling pressure before new shorts.
trade of the day: Long since EU open was decent or any short near 9700 since market found no buyers above it. The long on EU open was because of strong momentum and a second leg up was expected after Yesterday’s very bullish price action. The 1h 20ema has not been touched at that point, which added to the strength of the bulls.
comment: Market is in balance around 94k. Bulls want to test the bear trend line and bears want to get below 94000 to test 90000 again. Market is contracting so don’t make this more complicated as it years. Trade near the extremes and not too much in the middle.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 90000 - 101000
bull case: Bulls had their second leg up but it was weak and market then went sideways below 97k. They need a break above 97400 for more upside and their next obvious target is the big bear trend line, which probably not many expect to be broken on the next hit. They are still trading above the 1h ema, so they are in control and favored for more upside until we trade below it again.
Invalidation is below 89000.
bear case: Bears need to close a 1h bar below the ema to turn the market neutral again. If they can make 98000 resistance, it would show strength and I don’t think many bulls will hold on to longs if we can’t make it to 100k tomorrow/Thursday. Otherwise bears do not have much on the higher time frames since Monday was so bullish. I expect more bears to come around closer to 100k. Always ask yourself if you had to have a position right now, which side would it be and where would your stop be? Being a bear here is hard because your stop would have to be 103k and that’s 6k points. 1:1 r:r would need to hit 91k. Really not an ideal trade.
Invalidation is above 101000.
short term: Neutral 94k - 98k. Bulls are in control as long as we are above 94000. We are in an expanding triangle inside a bigger contracting triangle. Market is in breakout mode and we will probably see a breakout later this week or next.
medium-long term: 75000 is my biggest target for now and until bears get there, any lower target is just unreasonable. My bias is bearish going into 2025 and I think the odds of a bigger leg down are good.
current swing trade: Want to see market closer to the big bear trend line and then more selling pressure before new shorts.
trade of the day: Long since EU open was decent or any short near 9700 since market found no buyers above it. The long on EU open was because of strong momentum and a second leg up was expected after Yesterday’s very bullish price action. The 1h 20ema has not been touched at that point, which added to the strength of the bulls.
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