Bitcoin Daily Update (day 278)

8 de dez. de 2018

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019.


Previous analysis: Was very surprised how even it was. Made a bullish and a bearish case
Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778

Patterns: Hyperwave | Parabolic curve (4h)
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,200 - $3,311 | R: $3,464 - $3,552
BTCUSDSHORTS: New all time high
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.1344%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Close below
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Bearish cross and trending down
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish as it gets
Overall trend: Still bearish as it gets
Volume: Big, next 24 hours are very important. It will either bounce off that volume indicating that it was oversold. Or it will turn the bottom of the body into strong resistance
Candlestick analysis: High volume doji that has confirmed
Ichimoku Cloud: Useless
TD’ Sequential: Daily r7 and weekly r4 indicate more room to the downside
Visible Range: Didn’t quite fill the gap
Price action: 24h: +3.48%
Bollinger Bands: Didn’t quite touch the bottom band
Trendline: Turnt into a parabola
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend):
Parabolic SAR: $4,314
RSI: Looks like it is throwing back to the neckline of the h&s while in a bull div’
Stochastic: Posturing for a buy
Last Day Rule: For bulls the setup day is $3,206 | For bears it is $4,397

Summary: Two days in a row where I am as neutral as can be. There are a number of indicators that can be interpreted a couple of different ways and none of them of giving me any confidence about where we are heading next, outside of the most important.

Bearish Case

Consensio is fully bearish. The more I learn about Consensio the more I am learning not to bet against it. If I would have listened to the rules then I would still be in my short from ~ $6,300. Instead I closed out around $4,000 and even tried opening a long.

I am going to be completely revamping the daily update coming soon due to how much this experience has taught me about recognizing trends and then following them above all else.

The daily and weekly TD' Sequential also show more room to the downside.

I was also viewing this parabolic pattern as very bearish and a potential indication of upcoming capitulation until I posted it in Tyler Jenks hyperwave Telegram and was quickly corrected by a trader that I have a lot of respect for.

Bullish Case

“Parabolic moves are characterized by unsustainability. They are quite fragile and tend to break in the opposite direction.” -David Puell a/k/a kenoshaking

At first I saw the price turning prior support into resistance and posturing for a big move. Now I am inclined to agree with David.

Furthermore we are looking at high volume reversal candles on a number of large cap coins. BTC’, ETH’, LTC’, EOS’. That really, really made me want to close the rest of my shorts and open another long. However, I am making improvements to my stop loss strategy and sticking to a new rule, which is never betting against the short term trend.

EOS’ is a great example of my new approach to stop losses. I was deep into the profit on a perfected daily 9 and really wanted to close out. Instead I trailed my stop to 50% of the prior days marubozu (ex: if extended range candle / marbozu then draw fib on the individual candle and place stop at 50% point. This should be slightly above the 4 day MA. If it isn't then make sure to adjust the stop).

In regards to betting against the trend: if I want to go long (like I do off the confirmed high volume reversal candle) then I must wait for a daily close above the 4 MA.