BTC - BULL TRAP - why I am not buying at +$10,000
Atualizado
We are still in a bearish trend/market - until we break the upper downward line.
I think we're in a bull trap, maybe the last one before we see a double bottom at $6000 or slightly lower (see yellow lines).
Then, I think we will see a rise to $7500, with a possible pullback where we will consolidate for a few months, before we gain new strength and start to go up again in a new bull trend/market.
What am I basing that off?
1) Price vs. volume.... Although we are seeing some bigger green candles on the moves, the overall volume is still low and doesn't indicate a new bull run by any means. To have a strong uptrends, volume should follow.
2) We are simply still trading inside the bearish channel on the daily and weekly. Until that is broken, a new (true) bullish trend isn't established.
3) We just had a parabolic run (10x)!!! Those do not come every week or month or year for that matter. The last parabolic run in BTC was in late 2013... BTC is following the same chart pattern as back then: a 70% retracement, a big bounce (current bull trap) and then further bearish movement to a total 82% retracement. That would put as at around $3000-4000. Not sure we will go that low - but a double bottom is very realistic.
4) Just about every "bubble" (which is really just the correction of a parabolic run) follows the same chart pattern - dotcom bubble in 2000 as well... it's a market cycle which has happened over and over again in history in many markets and it will repeat itself. Only out-of-this-world amazing news will change that. That's why their forms are pretty similar and it wouldn't be stupid to compare that current bullish trend to the bull trap of 2014 after the 2013 parabolic run or the dotcom bubble.
To sum up - I am not buying here or anywhere in $10,000's. We might see a move to $11,500 and touch the downward trend line or we might top here at $10,800... I don't know. We are good in the longterm, I believe in blockchain and the crypto space. But in the shorter term, we are going down to consolidate before next legs up.
Let's see how it plays out. Happy trading!
Thoughts? Happy to discuss. This is my opinion - and an idea - not financial advice.
I think we're in a bull trap, maybe the last one before we see a double bottom at $6000 or slightly lower (see yellow lines).
Then, I think we will see a rise to $7500, with a possible pullback where we will consolidate for a few months, before we gain new strength and start to go up again in a new bull trend/market.
What am I basing that off?
1) Price vs. volume.... Although we are seeing some bigger green candles on the moves, the overall volume is still low and doesn't indicate a new bull run by any means. To have a strong uptrends, volume should follow.
2) We are simply still trading inside the bearish channel on the daily and weekly. Until that is broken, a new (true) bullish trend isn't established.
3) We just had a parabolic run (10x)!!! Those do not come every week or month or year for that matter. The last parabolic run in BTC was in late 2013... BTC is following the same chart pattern as back then: a 70% retracement, a big bounce (current bull trap) and then further bearish movement to a total 82% retracement. That would put as at around $3000-4000. Not sure we will go that low - but a double bottom is very realistic.
4) Just about every "bubble" (which is really just the correction of a parabolic run) follows the same chart pattern - dotcom bubble in 2000 as well... it's a market cycle which has happened over and over again in history in many markets and it will repeat itself. Only out-of-this-world amazing news will change that. That's why their forms are pretty similar and it wouldn't be stupid to compare that current bullish trend to the bull trap of 2014 after the 2013 parabolic run or the dotcom bubble.
To sum up - I am not buying here or anywhere in $10,000's. We might see a move to $11,500 and touch the downward trend line or we might top here at $10,800... I don't know. We are good in the longterm, I believe in blockchain and the crypto space. But in the shorter term, we are going down to consolidate before next legs up.
Let's see how it plays out. Happy trading!
Thoughts? Happy to discuss. This is my opinion - and an idea - not financial advice.
Nota
I want to add: If in case we break the upper downward trend line at $11,500 ish, we still need to break $12,200 and $13,000 before a new bull trend is truly confirmed... if that happens and volume follows the move... I will be convinced that a new bull trend is taking place. Let's see how it plays out. Happy trading!
Thoughts? Happy to discuss. This is my opinion - and an idea - not financial advice.
Nota
Here is a link that show exactly where we are compared to previous bubbles in BTC (and the dot com one). Great pattern recognition and nicely visualized. 
Nota
Strong selling coming in - that is something you don't want to see on a true bull run... Dropped through the immidiate upside channel trendline support, but still holding the overall trend until it break $9500. I do believe the market needs breather and that way too many alts are overrated. And I do believe BTC has once again lead people into a bull trap.
Let's see how it plays out. Happy trading!
Thoughts? Happy to discuss. This is my opinion - and an idea - not financial advice.
Nota
Time for an update! Are we gonna break out of the bear market cycle or are going down? Personally, I would be very surprised if it does breaks out of the $11.8-12.2k resistance... It might do a fake-out though.
It does looks like some big players/ major forces wants it to go up - notice how has been pushed/"manipulated" at all critical levels of resistance on the ruse, where big buying comes in every time. I just think BTC and the overall market needs a breather after the parabolic run, which is why I think it needs to come down and consolidate more before it takes off again. That is just my opinion.
Disclaimer: I am holding fiat atm and although I would like to buy cheap BTC, a new bull run after breaking the bear market cycle would probably be better for making profits.
Let's see how it plays out. Happy trading!
Thoughts? Happy to discuss. This is my opinion - and an idea - not financial advice.
Nota
And it looks like I was right - it was a fake-out, a bull trap! BTC dropping on huge volume, which is not a good sign and would not be happening if this was a true bull run. Biggest volume red volume since our new low at 6k. Look at the chart - that volume shows up at market TURNING POINTS. This is a turning point and we will head lower.
First target: $9200
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