Bitcoin Analysis: Bearish or Bullish ? Same pattern repeats !
This is a Thread where I explain where the price is gonna take his direction, up or down? Based fundamentally on T.A at the weekly timeframe, Emotional Behaviour, and some fundamentals.
1- As I show in the chart (weekly time frame), The same scenario is repeating itself, with the same trendline structures!
In the may crash: The trend of the bearish structure was directed by a Channel formed from two Main Trendlines:
Trendline 1: Formed from the previous higher high (57k) before top 1 (64k) and the 2nd next low (48k) after the top (64k)
Trendline 2: Formed from the lowest low (42k) before top 1 (64k) and the next lower low (35k)
2-Nowadays crash (November): the trend of the bearish structure is limited by a channel with two main trendlines formed by the same patterns of the trendlines in the May crash:
Trendline 1': From the previous higher high (64k) before top 2 (69k) and the 2nd next low (46k) after the top (69k)
Trendline 2': Formed from the lowest low (40k) before top 2 (69k) and the next lower low (34k)
3-To be clear even if I say the first top is 64k keep in my mind that in my analysis it's not a precise local point of the price, it's a zone (60-62k), the same thing for the top 2 69k.
4-In addition to that Volume is decreasing.
5-Combining that technical Analysis with the emotional behavior, I can tell that nowadays (at the time of writing this thread: week 1 of February) we are exactly in the third week of Jun, at the 14-20 Jun weekly candle where the fear and greed index was at 38 (now we are at 37) and we had in the next week another dump after that relief rally.
6- To summarize it up, combining both patterns of P.A using the T.A and Fear and Greed Index we may see the next scenario happen again: Another dump starting from the next week (7-13 February 2022)to the 30k-32k level but we can see probably a continued bullish momentum (from now: Sunday evening to Monday or Tuesday) to the 43-44k LVL testing respectively the daily 50 MA and the weekly EMA 50 before any downside movement.
7 -Last, watching some fundamentals, these are some strong narratives to keep in mind that are in the correlation of the said analysis above, and that may drive the market down again.
- Fed raising interest rates in March is affecting all the traditional financial markets and we know that they are still linked to Crypto Market.
- The escalating situation between Russia and Ukraine
- The Sec delayed the ETF Grayscale spot Bitcoin (not good) BUT asked for Public comment (which may be a good sign later)
- Social engagement in the crypto sphere is still decreasing (loss of interest from retails).
1- As I show in the chart (weekly time frame), The same scenario is repeating itself, with the same trendline structures!
In the may crash: The trend of the bearish structure was directed by a Channel formed from two Main Trendlines:
Trendline 1: Formed from the previous higher high (57k) before top 1 (64k) and the 2nd next low (48k) after the top (64k)
Trendline 2: Formed from the lowest low (42k) before top 1 (64k) and the next lower low (35k)
2-Nowadays crash (November): the trend of the bearish structure is limited by a channel with two main trendlines formed by the same patterns of the trendlines in the May crash:
Trendline 1': From the previous higher high (64k) before top 2 (69k) and the 2nd next low (46k) after the top (69k)
Trendline 2': Formed from the lowest low (40k) before top 2 (69k) and the next lower low (34k)
3-To be clear even if I say the first top is 64k keep in my mind that in my analysis it's not a precise local point of the price, it's a zone (60-62k), the same thing for the top 2 69k.
4-In addition to that Volume is decreasing.
5-Combining that technical Analysis with the emotional behavior, I can tell that nowadays (at the time of writing this thread: week 1 of February) we are exactly in the third week of Jun, at the 14-20 Jun weekly candle where the fear and greed index was at 38 (now we are at 37) and we had in the next week another dump after that relief rally.
6- To summarize it up, combining both patterns of P.A using the T.A and Fear and Greed Index we may see the next scenario happen again: Another dump starting from the next week (7-13 February 2022)to the 30k-32k level but we can see probably a continued bullish momentum (from now: Sunday evening to Monday or Tuesday) to the 43-44k LVL testing respectively the daily 50 MA and the weekly EMA 50 before any downside movement.
7 -Last, watching some fundamentals, these are some strong narratives to keep in mind that are in the correlation of the said analysis above, and that may drive the market down again.
- Fed raising interest rates in March is affecting all the traditional financial markets and we know that they are still linked to Crypto Market.
- The escalating situation between Russia and Ukraine
- The Sec delayed the ETF Grayscale spot Bitcoin (not good) BUT asked for Public comment (which may be a good sign later)
- Social engagement in the crypto sphere is still decreasing (loss of interest from retails).
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