Bitcoin Daily Update (day 292)

2 de jan. de 2019Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

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Consensio: Price > Short MA > Medium MA > bearish Long MA with golden cross.

Signaling 75% long entry but I wanted to be fully out of positions before starting the challenge. I will be ready to make some moves tomorrow.

Patterns: Phase 7 of hyperwave | The cup and handle that I was watching for failed to confirm, that is quite bearish.
Horizontals: Looking at the daily candles and you can see resistance and support moving down over the past 5 days. Currently S = $3,691 & R = $3,820
Trendline: Appears to be forming a trend from the top off Nov 29.
Parabolic SAR: Just printed the second bearish SAR at $4,225
BTCUSDSHORTS: Back under the trendline. Most bullish indicator I have seen yet, looks ready for a squeeze.
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0056%
Contango / Backwardation: Backwardation, another bullish indicator.
TD’ Sequential: Price flip
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenkan-Sen is acting as resistance
Average Directional Index: Back below 10, looks ready for a trend
Price Action: 24h: 2.7% | 2w: +3.8% | 1m: -8.0%
Bollinger Bands: Trending bullish with price on top
Relative Strength Index: Consolidating 50
Stochastic Oscillator: Still pulling back

Summary: Happy New Year everyone! It feels great to be back! Going through this process today reminded me of why it is so important to go through all of my indicators on a consistent basis.

I have been very bearish since Christmas Eve when we tried to breakthrough $4,080 to confirm the cup and handle. That is mainly due to the shooting star candle that was a bull trap. Great example of why you wait for the pattern to confirm AND wait for the candle to close. Nevertheless I feel differently immediately after going through my process.

Bullish Case

I like how much time we are spending above the 33 MA. If it stays there much longer then we will turn it up and that could see a fully bullish posture. I also like the BTCUSDSHORTS’ back under the trendline and primed for a squeeze.

There is Backwardation in the futures market while the price is gaining over the prior 2 weeks and that is very bullish. Lastly, the Bollinger Band is in a bullish setup.

Bearish Case

Resistance and support have been moving down over the prior four days. The 33 MA is still signaling a bear trend. The Parabolic SAR was recently broken and is now bearish.

In Conclusion

I am staying away until the diagonals have broken. I am leaning bullish and will consider setting a stop buy order in the neighborhood of $3,861. I am not considering a stop sell order if we breakdown. That is because it is against Consensio and if I want to enter against Consensio it is a no trade zone. In that circumstance I would just wait for those guidelines to signal a sell entry.

I hope everyone had a marvelous 2018. I know I did! The lessons learned will serve me a lifetime! It would take 10+ years in the traditional markets to learn what we had the opportunity to experience in crypto last year. A special thanks goes out to the brilliant teachers we have such as: Tyler Jenks, Tone Vays, Nick CryptoCore, UglyOldGoat, CarpeNoctom, David Puell and MustStopMurad. Thank you all for everything that you do!!!

With all of the free resources available it has never be more realistic than it is now to learn how to consistently beat the markets. The opportunity is unprecedented.

Even if you didn’t have the best year personally then there is never a better time to make something happen than right now. Not because it is New Year's but because it is right now! Start with a plan and then take action. If that is intimidating or hasn’t worked in the past then start with the smallest thing you can think of, like making your bed, and commit to that on a daily basis. Then build a positive trend, expect a pullback to retest old lows and stay focused on breaking through to higher highs, such as washing the sheets.

In order to provide inspiration I have started the 2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge and posted my complete trading strategy and process.

As always don't hesitate to comment with any questions.

Start small, think big