Bitcoin. Anatomy of a financial bubble.
Atualizado
Warriors!
I'm bored, nothing to trade.
Might as well make a little chart showing how Bitcoin is following the usual bubble pattern - textbook.
1- Displacement
2- Boom
3- Euphoria
4- Profit taking
5- Panic?
There have been many signs, but the real panic hasn't happened yet, for example there hasn't been the volume.
It could look like this:
-42% in 2 days, probably slowed down by whales that took profit and wanted to buy back cheaper, could have been way way worse.
So watch out traders! It could fall alot with no bounce at any time!
Smart money's job is to keep distributing as long as the price is very high (9000$ compared to 200-300$ during accumulation phase is 3000-4500%)
and let the bagHODLer delusional top buyers sell as low as possible after they distributed as much as they can.
If I am correct the whales still have 1-3 million Bitcoins to dump on fools.
Something like this can also happen, and very very often happens:
Just use maths and cut your losses/take profit to reduce your exposure when possible.
People that buy because Taurus is aligned with Uranus (this can't be real... but I know it is sadly) don't do well unless they are extremely lucky, and even then they end up losing anyway.
washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2018/05/09/ricky-williams-says-uranus-is-pointing-to-bitcoin-as-a-great-investment/
I copy pasted some text from here :p investopedia.com/articles/stocks/10/5-steps-of-a-bubble.asp
I'm bored, nothing to trade.
Might as well make a little chart showing how Bitcoin is following the usual bubble pattern - textbook.
1- Displacement
2- Boom
3- Euphoria
4- Profit taking
5- Panic?
There have been many signs, but the real panic hasn't happened yet, for example there hasn't been the volume.
It could look like this:
-42% in 2 days, probably slowed down by whales that took profit and wanted to buy back cheaper, could have been way way worse.
So watch out traders! It could fall alot with no bounce at any time!
Smart money's job is to keep distributing as long as the price is very high (9000$ compared to 200-300$ during accumulation phase is 3000-4500%)
and let the bagHODLer delusional top buyers sell as low as possible after they distributed as much as they can.
If I am correct the whales still have 1-3 million Bitcoins to dump on fools.
Something like this can also happen, and very very often happens:
Just use maths and cut your losses/take profit to reduce your exposure when possible.
People that buy because Taurus is aligned with Uranus (this can't be real... but I know it is sadly) don't do well unless they are extremely lucky, and even then they end up losing anyway.
washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2018/05/09/ricky-williams-says-uranus-is-pointing-to-bitcoin-as-a-great-investment/
I copy pasted some text from here :p investopedia.com/articles/stocks/10/5-steps-of-a-bubble.asp
Nota
I have noticed the rallies "back to normal this was the bottom" have been weaker and weaker. This is the main reason I have moved to Forex commodities & indices recently and keep trading crypto in the background.This is very interesting, we can see the angles getting weaker and weaker AND during january alt season the euphoria was still huge even thought Bitcoin had crashed nearly 50%. Every one still believed we go to 50k minimum and the rally was even stronger than in december!
One could calculate exactly the % gains/day on each of these and I might do it but I have to scan CFD's and set alerts, got a list of 20 to check. Could go fast thought I probably just set an alert on extreme RSI's.
Expect next rallies to continue being weaker.
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Note how the angles on the way down are very similar to the angles on the way up.If this amuses you, you could find a date to a bottom.
Angle + trendline + price level = target +/- a few days. Easy.
Yeah I'll do that later to show how smart I am XD
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This is purely for fun but I'm going to bet on July, 10 th for a Bitcoin priced 6900$Let's see what happens XD. If we go past 10k, maybe not.
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Hopium!This is possible, I don't think it's likely, but possible.
Microsoft, one of the success story that didn't go down 90% like so many others.
I think this is very unlikely in crypto, cryptocurrencies don't produce anything they don't sell computers, and the market is full of bipolar retail investors.
Big money if they FOMO (they don't FOMO) they only need to short sell a couple of thousand bitcoins at once to drop the price (we all remember what happened last few times this happened). This is nothing for them. They could short sell a million easy and destroy order books to $0.1 REKT.
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This angle thing worked back then lol.Evertiem!!!
4HR is oversold now so I expect a bounce soon.
From 8000 to 9000 would be just perfect for me ^^
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Comparing Bitcoin to a "success story"Let's look at the numbers shall we?
pionline.com/article/20150302/INTERACTIVE/150309989/top-15-nasdaq-companies-when-the-index-peaked-in-2000
IPO's all dead, top companies all worthless.
Some tiny new projects Apple Facebook and Amazon went way up thought, back in 2000 NO ONE was invested in them or even knew about them lel.
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About netscape the top IPO numero uno shitcoin if you will (TRON is that you?)fool.com/investing/general/2013/08/09/the-ipo-that-inflated-the-dot-com-bubble.aspx
Here the list of top tech companies by mcap March 10 2000:
Microsoft
Cisco
Intel
Oracle
Sun Microsystems
Dell
Qualcomm
Yahoo
Applied Materials
Uniphase
Veritas Software
Juniper Networks
Sycamore Networks
Palm Inc.
Internet Capital Group
I heard Intel and Cisco were doing great!
tradingview.com/chart/ZmdH4iNI/
Got any idea how big Cisco and IBM are? IBM CREATED COMPUTERS BASICALLY.
WITHOUT CISCO THEY WOULD NOT EVEN BE AN INTERNET. They manufacture routers etc. They are HUGE.
Still down 25-50% 20 years later, even more when counting inflation.
Can't find Veritas, it was absorbed by Symantec when it went down.
The last 2 jokes aren't listed anymore, Palms Inc. got purchased by HP.
#JustHODL #WarrenBuffetWasWrongIn2000
Nota
Here are Cisco and Intel #2 and #3 mbNota
About market cycles, we can see the same patterns over and over, always looks the same, old posts but still relevant:Still looking very very much like 2014 - this is an old post, still relevant
I don't know if this is relevant:
Also, the gold bubble:
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A secret magical way to identify major moves in any market bubble or not.Guppy.
Won't start a whole lesson on it, I already posted the basics, and the info is easy to find on the internet.
I knew the war would last a while, and it's still ongoing and should last at least a few more weeks.
Now, bulls have to hope the red lines do not contract and point down, because that would mean 2017 investors have decided to sell, and when we know how much buying happened in 2017, how exponentially we went up from 10 billion to 300 billion !!!! THE DUMP WOULD BE APOCALYPTIC. A dump of monstruous proportions. It will hurt very very much.
If this happens (here what it looked like in 2014):
Some examples
Silver bounced on the very long term investors area, more about that later (not shown on this chart).
- This is pure gold btw, and you get it for free. Guppy decided to let every one know how to make money.
On the daily, this:
Nah this tool can't be real. Day trader swing trader investor doesn't matter, Guppy is like cheat codes lol.
Go pick any chart and go see the same.
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Oh if Daryl Guppy didn't tell every one about this there's no way I'd share it XDI would just keep it for myself and draw Stegosaurus charts :D
Nota
Little update on what I said on the weather the past couple of months.Anyone thinking that fundamentals matter and that Bitcoin price can't go down because it is a "new paradigm" that will "change the world", go check how the weather was in the world in mid April to early May, and how it has been the past days.
The places too check are:
- Asia (Mostly KR and CHN east Coast) ===> Look at Shangai weather.
- Europe ===> Paris or Berlin will do.
- USA (Place is more than a country, more like a dozen mid-sized european countries + 40 small ones, so have to check several places) ===> New York + Chicago + California
I'm not saying that's the cause, but there is strong correlation.
Aaaah who am I kidding, of course I'm saying that's the cause.
That's the cause 100% lol.
Plenty of sites on the internet where all that is verifiable...
wunderground.com/history/airport/KALB/2018/4/26/WeeklyHistory.html?req_city=Albany&req_statename=New York&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=
timeanddate.com/weather/france/paris/historic
Retail investors are bipolar, and they can go from "we're going to half a mil" to "I HAVE TO SELL" faster than I can say "told you so".
Make sure to check the weather channel(s), if the 5 places around the world I listed get summer like weather at the end of the month we very likely spike up 2 weeks and then aaaaaaaaaaaaaah where is the bottom?
The investors are going to decide to sell suddenly and the drop is going to happen so fast traders probably won't be able to do anything about it ==> orders must be ready in advance imo to be safe. Any bad news can trigger capitulation now.
Make sure to keep buy orders very low just in case ;) Veeeeery low ;)
Nota
medium.com/@beautyon_/why-the-price-of-bitcoin-doesnt-matter-155e8400557bDidn't read all of it. I might agree with some of it.
Where he is wrong is where he says day traders speculating causes the price to oscillate. WRONG WRONG WRONG.
First of all, they're all bad and lose sell when we dropped 50% and market sentiment is about to turn bullish just giving money away and reducing the volatility (since when the buyers show up the more sellers are around the more it will slow down the move up), but most importantly people that buy and sell within a few hours have 0 impact on the price over the course of a day or a week, it all evens out.
If someone causes the price to oscillate it's the herd, the emotional retail investors that drop the price 15% in 2 hours because of some random news, as well as whoever manipulates the price. Barts and 500 dollar 1 HR candles everywhere!
Nota
Nah he tries too much to sound smart and makes assumptions, article is pretty bad as usual. News are really pointless.Nota
Notice anything... familiar?It's unreal. Any market except forex, ALL the time. Gold, same.
As long as they are noobs.
Just like in video games playing against new players, same bad tricks keep working.
Months of accumulation, big green day, then bull market, then new casual investors get dumped on and don't take a 10% loss, they ride it to the bottom.
"Who cares about a 10% drop this thing went +1500% already haha what color will you order your lambo? SEE? TOLD YOU! Price is going up this was the bottom now is the rally! SEE? TOLD YOU! Price is going up this was the bottom now is the rally! SEE? TOLD YOU! Price is going up this was the bottom now is the rally!"
At least I know whenever I get tired of making all kinds of calculations and/or get old and lazy I can always ride market cycles. They always worked and always will.
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With that lame angle we got since people are "never giving up we will win we got heart" it could take forever to get to panic stage.Arg I just want to pull my money out, it's so counterproductive to waste my time in this clown market.
But I feel once I pull my money out that's when we flash crash.
I hate this so much. Why can't I have an account with a broker that gives me access to crypto AND all the rest, not just crypto and nothing else.
If we don't rapidly fall in June lads, get your money out.
Frozen capital is useless.
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Ok been 10 days, and we're still following the same angle ;)Whales have a sold 2 weeks to cash out now I think lol.
Small chance we have a decent bounce.
My speculation is:
2 weeks to visit 6000-6500$ once more (around the 5 June)
Then after that 3500$ will be reached the second quarter of July :)
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"During financial bubbles we go down as fast as we went up"Also works with smaller moves.
That previous update will probably work out to lol.
18 days to 7800.
A few more days to 6600. From 7600 to 6600 (more or less) we will fall really fast, possibly only take 1 days :D
Bounce on 6600 and then 6400 a few days later.
But anything is possible blah blah all that stuff.
Nota
Interesting bear flag (or whatever you want to call it).Also interesting that previous ones hit target.
Very interesting.
Combine greed, ignorance, fear of missing out, public opinion, herd mentality, irrational fanatical love for something, AND leverage, and you will get very interesting results :)
Grab some popcorn, sit back, and enjoy the joy.
It will be magnificent in its own way.
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Going to laugh so hard when we return to the mean.Maybe this line:
And to think some people bought above $15000 and thought they were geniusses.
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400-500$ in 2019 imo.Nota
I feel like it's going to be the most boring week ever in Forex.Even crypto perhaps.
Use this free time to go enjoy all the past articles comments blogs about the "unstoppable" "revolution" that were p2p file sharing companies.
Exeem napster e-mule idk what. Where ar they now? :)
Where is the huge revolution that CANNOT fail it is "mathematically IMPOSSIBLE" that they don't revolutionize the world?
Where are the billionaires?
An example of the dumbasses from back then (I suppose they reproduced and their children are the crypto idiots?):
zdnet.com/article/forget-napster-freenet-is-really-scary/
"Forget Napster, FreeNet is really scary..."
"FreeNet is really scary..."
"FreeNet" "scary"
Does anyone know wtf the scary revolution monster FreeNet is? hands up! No one? Now one knows what the big revolution freenet is?
An overhyped piece of trash that scammed dumb "investors" that thought they knew better than Warren Buffet how to invest.
Just like all the little magical coins "Lisk" "Litecoin" "StellarLumens" "Tron".
All these dozens of troll magic coins no one will ever have heard about in 20 years.
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