BTC update...
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I haven't posted much lately, partly because hideously busy for the last and next couple of wks and partly because the volatility of BTC makes it hard to predict too far forward until it settles into a more predictable pattern. This will have to happen over the coming few weeks as the price gets ever closer to the apex of trend lines.
The price broke down from the slightly loose shark harmonic, and took out some key long term trend lines on the log chart, currently remaining above only the most recent (purple) running from November (extremely long term trend lines below 5k remain intact of course). Remaining above this line looks feasible on the daily RSI however I would like to see some strong green candles in the next two days, particularly today, as the red currently outweighs the green!
For the short term - the price made it through two prior resistances and is sitting at third. Some bearish rsi divergence is starting to form on various timeframes and volume is falling. A rising wedge shows in the last couple of days however btc has lately been ignoring the bearishness of this pattern and often breaks up from it. On the 1 hour we have just made it onto the top of the Ichi cloud which may provide some support however the cloud is thin.
Finally across the larger timescale there is a bullish falling broadening wedge which again we are on the cusp of breaking out of or retracing down.
All in, we have some room to move up IF the volume comes in but possibly only to 7250 previous horizontal resistance before becoming overbought and heavily divergent. If the price moves sideways for a while allowing the RSI to correct we may break up more strongly.
The price broke down from the slightly loose shark harmonic, and took out some key long term trend lines on the log chart, currently remaining above only the most recent (purple) running from November (extremely long term trend lines below 5k remain intact of course). Remaining above this line looks feasible on the daily RSI however I would like to see some strong green candles in the next two days, particularly today, as the red currently outweighs the green!
For the short term - the price made it through two prior resistances and is sitting at third. Some bearish rsi divergence is starting to form on various timeframes and volume is falling. A rising wedge shows in the last couple of days however btc has lately been ignoring the bearishness of this pattern and often breaks up from it. On the 1 hour we have just made it onto the top of the Ichi cloud which may provide some support however the cloud is thin.
Finally across the larger timescale there is a bullish falling broadening wedge which again we are on the cusp of breaking out of or retracing down.
All in, we have some room to move up IF the volume comes in but possibly only to 7250 previous horizontal resistance before becoming overbought and heavily divergent. If the price moves sideways for a while allowing the RSI to correct we may break up more strongly.
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Update - bearish rising wedges are not concerning BTC so far. It's made it this far but is now overbought and showing regular divergence on time frames up to an hour so is due some sort of a correction. Price has broken over and is sitting nicely on one of the prior trend lines and has made it to the top of the 2 hour Ichi cloud. On the 2 and 4 hour we can see bearish hidden divergence, however the EMAs have crossed up or are near to a cross (depending on input selection) confirming the change in trend from bearish to bullish which may negate the divergence.
Still hoping for an increase in volume after the correction to support a continued uptrend.
Come say hi @elisa_crypto on twitter!
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