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BTC/USD - Another corrective wave down?
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I haven't been a fan of the latest short-term bull run from the 9k region, but still traded that triangle which perfectly reached my MPO target just under 12k. There was a high probabily that the longer term flag/down channel would be broken which was expected to open the path to 20k, but as I just mentioned I think its a bit too early. We should see a more prolonged consolidation period inside the flag in order to get a healthier rally in the future.
This analyses is all about that short term uptrend and some important support levels from which the price might bounce on the next month or so. Think if that uptrend will be broken the mid-trem sentiment will shift back to bearish and the price might potentially slide towards the bottom of the flag which is around 8k region. The reason why I think this level is super - important is because the Level of Control (POC) is situated in that region + the 200 day EMA on the daily chart is on the exact same level as well. The history showed that the 200D EMA on thje Daily is extremely impotant in the begining of a bull run.
I admit that the price might never get back below 10k but lets see, think that the VPVR ( Volume Profile Indicator) works really great when trying to identify a bottom. Just check my analyses on Bitcoin posted back in last September, where I have accurately predicted where and when will be the bottom. Will attach it below the post. I am sure you gonna like it :)
Despite the fact that I went short yestaerday, at 12050, I still think that there might be a good oportunity to take another short trade. So the idea basicly is to trade the break of that uptrend line. For additional trigger confirmation will wait for the 4h candle close below it. Stop level just above the recent high around 12400 (if the flag will break I will definetely go long). Defined 5 targets. All they depend on your risk apetite and trade management. I personally am going to take 50% profit at TP 3; 25% at TP 4 & 25% at TP5.
Expected trade duration is 3-4 weeks.
Manage your stops wisely!!
I am currently making a detailed research on the previous 2 bull runs in order to make a price and time prediction of the current one, hopefully will post it next week. So hit that subscribe button if you want to find out what might be the BTC highs this time)!
Have been inactive for a while, but now am back and will try to post some of my trade set-ups here. So please like the post it will motivate me to post more frequently.
Thanks to all who read till the end and good luck! :)
September 2018 Analyses:
This analyses is all about that short term uptrend and some important support levels from which the price might bounce on the next month or so. Think if that uptrend will be broken the mid-trem sentiment will shift back to bearish and the price might potentially slide towards the bottom of the flag which is around 8k region. The reason why I think this level is super - important is because the Level of Control (POC) is situated in that region + the 200 day EMA on the daily chart is on the exact same level as well. The history showed that the 200D EMA on thje Daily is extremely impotant in the begining of a bull run.
I admit that the price might never get back below 10k but lets see, think that the VPVR ( Volume Profile Indicator) works really great when trying to identify a bottom. Just check my analyses on Bitcoin posted back in last September, where I have accurately predicted where and when will be the bottom. Will attach it below the post. I am sure you gonna like it :)
Despite the fact that I went short yestaerday, at 12050, I still think that there might be a good oportunity to take another short trade. So the idea basicly is to trade the break of that uptrend line. For additional trigger confirmation will wait for the 4h candle close below it. Stop level just above the recent high around 12400 (if the flag will break I will definetely go long). Defined 5 targets. All they depend on your risk apetite and trade management. I personally am going to take 50% profit at TP 3; 25% at TP 4 & 25% at TP5.
Expected trade duration is 3-4 weeks.
Manage your stops wisely!!
I am currently making a detailed research on the previous 2 bull runs in order to make a price and time prediction of the current one, hopefully will post it next week. So hit that subscribe button if you want to find out what might be the BTC highs this time)!
Have been inactive for a while, but now am back and will try to post some of my trade set-ups here. So please like the post it will motivate me to post more frequently.
Thanks to all who read till the end and good luck! :)
September 2018 Analyses:
Nota
Another bull trap happened today, similar to the yesterday’s one. I think that it confirms even more the importance of this flag/channel.Bulls are running out of steam above 12k, so there is a very high probability that the mid-term top might be set.
I’m still waiting for a break of the uptrend (purple line), before entering the short trade. Will keep updating this post as the price action develops!
Nota
Now I’m getting a bit worried, 12k is being tested for multiple times. Looks like the bulls are accumulating, long positions. But still think unless we will see a break of the 12400-12500 with decent volume, the odds are in favor to the downside.Nota
Since yesterday, my view has slightly changed.I expected a bounce of that flag, ideally similar to the one we seen last 2 times. But now it takes too much time, think that’s definitely not in favor for the bears.
In my opinion, now it’s 50/50. So I admit that the trend line might hold and we might see 13k soon.
But still, the boince of this purple trend line showed the importance of it. Unless it breaks today, I will probably close my short position that Was holding since 12050.
But I’m sure, even if the price will further rise, It’s a pretty good idea to trade the break of it, even if the price will go to 14k.
There should be a massive consolidation at some point!
Trade ativo
Nota
Finally it broke.Nota
The bigger channel held as expected and the trend line broke yesterday. I'm not dure how low it can go but think 10k is very possible.Short position opened.
Trade fechado: objetivo atingido
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