What Is Really Going On? (Full Explanation)
I don't claim to be a technical analysis expert and to be honest, we have seen TA fail so many times with cyrptocurrencies now that it is more important to talk about logic and reason rather than some imaginary lines that anyone can predict and hence manipulate in this relatively small market. So, let's get down to it:
We know now that the drop in price of Bitcoin for the most part can be attributed to Mt. Gox's offloading otherwise it would have continued straight up like a rocket, with some profit taking along the way. I'm not going to get into whether that's a good thing or a bad thing. I'm more interested in exploring what is really going on.
So, Mt. Gox is done offloading for now otherwise you wouldn't be hearing about it in the news. The exchanges knew all along but they didn't tell you did they? The same will happen in the future. They don't want to hurt their business. They like their 1m+ a day revenues (talking about the likes of Binance and Bittrex). So, they worked gladly and closely with that Mt.Gox trustee so that everything is done in a systematic manner not to scare off people too much or worst case scenario kill the game and put them out of business.
Now we've covered that. So, what else is going on? Well, big financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan can't wait to get their hands on a big chunk of BTC. So, they are watching closely for opportunities to buy but at the same time they don't want to get your hopes up. So, they'll have some of their 'friends' come down hard on BTC while they are busy shopping through their proxies.
Covered that. What's going on here? Most top traders here are traders not investors. What I mean to say is that they day trade, they follow the price every hour. If they don't like the look of things next hour, they get out and wait to see how it goes the next hour, or let's say the next day. In the given scenario, most of these top traders are out of the game. They pulled their investments on time because they don't HODL like most of you. They trade by the hour or by the day. Again, I'm not saying if it's a good thing or a bad thing. It's your money and your strategy and I'm not going into that. Now, most of the people here, top traders included are bullish on Bitcoin long term.
However, if they are out of the game now, then they have a vested interest to draw all these fancy patterns and say the price is going to go down. I'm saying this because I myself do this at times without realizing. It's hard to be unbiased when your own interest is involved. So, if they have taken profits and are waiting for re-entry, they are going to do their best to spread FUD and say the price is going down to $2000. If they are holding BTC, they say it's going up to $30,000.
Most of you know this by now. I'm not saying all traders are like this but most traders are when it comes to cryptocurrencies. Now, in circumstances like these, the best you can do is connect the dots yourself and with all that's going around like the big fall from all time high and now new products like Coinbase Index Fund and Bitcoin Futures and all this new interest, you gotta step back and look at the big picture and decide for yourself whether this is the top of the bubble and end of the game, or whether we had a correction and now we are just getting started for the next run up. I think the answer is pretty obvious. If you can't figure it out, maybe there are other investment opportunities out there.
I see a lot of new traders here, people who ventured into this business for the first time due to cryptocurrencies and I feel obligated to help these people as part of the community. I hope you find this post informative and helpful. Good luck! :)
We know now that the drop in price of Bitcoin for the most part can be attributed to Mt. Gox's offloading otherwise it would have continued straight up like a rocket, with some profit taking along the way. I'm not going to get into whether that's a good thing or a bad thing. I'm more interested in exploring what is really going on.
So, Mt. Gox is done offloading for now otherwise you wouldn't be hearing about it in the news. The exchanges knew all along but they didn't tell you did they? The same will happen in the future. They don't want to hurt their business. They like their 1m+ a day revenues (talking about the likes of Binance and Bittrex). So, they worked gladly and closely with that Mt.Gox trustee so that everything is done in a systematic manner not to scare off people too much or worst case scenario kill the game and put them out of business.
Now we've covered that. So, what else is going on? Well, big financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan can't wait to get their hands on a big chunk of BTC. So, they are watching closely for opportunities to buy but at the same time they don't want to get your hopes up. So, they'll have some of their 'friends' come down hard on BTC while they are busy shopping through their proxies.
Covered that. What's going on here? Most top traders here are traders not investors. What I mean to say is that they day trade, they follow the price every hour. If they don't like the look of things next hour, they get out and wait to see how it goes the next hour, or let's say the next day. In the given scenario, most of these top traders are out of the game. They pulled their investments on time because they don't HODL like most of you. They trade by the hour or by the day. Again, I'm not saying if it's a good thing or a bad thing. It's your money and your strategy and I'm not going into that. Now, most of the people here, top traders included are bullish on Bitcoin long term.
However, if they are out of the game now, then they have a vested interest to draw all these fancy patterns and say the price is going to go down. I'm saying this because I myself do this at times without realizing. It's hard to be unbiased when your own interest is involved. So, if they have taken profits and are waiting for re-entry, they are going to do their best to spread FUD and say the price is going down to $2000. If they are holding BTC, they say it's going up to $30,000.
Most of you know this by now. I'm not saying all traders are like this but most traders are when it comes to cryptocurrencies. Now, in circumstances like these, the best you can do is connect the dots yourself and with all that's going around like the big fall from all time high and now new products like Coinbase Index Fund and Bitcoin Futures and all this new interest, you gotta step back and look at the big picture and decide for yourself whether this is the top of the bubble and end of the game, or whether we had a correction and now we are just getting started for the next run up. I think the answer is pretty obvious. If you can't figure it out, maybe there are other investment opportunities out there.
I see a lot of new traders here, people who ventured into this business for the first time due to cryptocurrencies and I feel obligated to help these people as part of the community. I hope you find this post informative and helpful. Good luck! :)
Nota
Also ask yourself this: If BTC was to go down to 2k say in the next few days, do you actually think it is going to remain around that level or die or go to zero by the end of 2018 or will it rebound strongly from there and go to new highs by end of 2018? Once you answer yourself that, then ask yourself: Should I risk a certain stake in BTC now thinking the price will be more than $10,000 (worst case scenario) from here by end of 2018 or should I wait for the bottom at 2k (which may never happen) and miss out on the next bull run?
Nota
“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you‘re wrong.” -George SorosNota
PS My TA take on this is that BTC will continue to trade sideways for quite some time. Meanwhile, altcoins are going to profit.
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As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.