Bitcoin: The Crash Before the Next Bubble
As seen in the overlaid pattern of the NASDAQ chart from 1998, a sharp drop in the index followed by a rapid recovery often signals high volatility. This typically occurs in periods when markets are still searching for equilibrium, but the risks of overheating increase. A similar dynamic is observed in cryptocurrencies.
During the 1998 market crash, low oil prices were a natural consequence of the crisis. However, today’s situation might be artificially constructed. Donald Trump and other Western politicians have already expressed their desire to pressure OPEC into increasing production to lower prices, thereby reducing Russia’s revenues and easing inflationary pressures in the West. If this pressure on OPEC fails, regulators or key market players may intensify rhetoric about an impending recession, leveraging weak macroeconomic data, high energy prices, and volatility in key sectors. This could scare investors, leading to reduced investment, lower consumption, and a slowdown in market activity - essentially a self-fulfilling prophecy that pressures energy prices and indices without fundamental reasons for a collapse.
Another shock to the markets could come from tariff wars, whose full impact remains unclear to participants and could be significantly dramatised in the next month or two.
How reasonable do you think it is to draw parallels between today and the late 1990s, including the formation of the dot-com bubble?
1. Political Instability and Paradigm Shifts
The political landscape of the late 1990s was marked by rising authoritarian trends in several regions, including the Middle East, Latin America, China, and Russia. Local conflicts, the rise of radical movements, and terrorist attacks - such as the 1998 bombing of the U.S. embassy—signalled increasing instability. By the late 1990s, anti-globalisation sentiments and criticism of international organisations had begun to emerge, reflecting growing dissatisfaction with economic inequality and cultural homogenisation. This period saw a return of regional rivalries and new threats, pushing the world toward a more complex multipolar system—a shift that began back then.
In the 2020s, we are witnessing similar trends: the rise of authoritarianism and populism in certain countries, growing tensions between globalisation and nationalism, and increased political polarisation, which undermines governments’ ability to develop long-term strategies.
2. Economic Instability
The Asian financial crisis of 1997 and Russia’s 1998 default had a shocking impact on the global economy. However, the U.S. stock market, after a sharp correction, continued to grow, fuelled by low interest rates - ultimately leading to the dot-com crash in 2000.
Today, the effects of the pandemic, the energy crisis, and the war in Ukraine continue to shape the global economy. Central banks are in a difficult position: they must raise rates to combat inflation, but doing so could trigger a recession, not to mention the potential for trade wars. Economic policy remains a source of uncertainty, just as it was in the late 1990s.
3. Technological Breakthrough
The internet in the late 1990s opened up entirely new opportunities, much like AI is transforming entire industries today. Companies are integrating AI into finance, healthcare, manufacturing, marketing, and even everyday life, promising enormous benefits. Cryptocurrencies, in turn, are incorporating AI solutions into their ecosystems, developing projects based on automation and machine learning to attract new investors.
4. Expectations Outpacing Reality
As in the late 1990s, expectations for AI are already exceeding current economic benefits. Many companies invest in AI just to stay relevant, even if their understanding of the technology is limited. Cryptocurrencies are capitalising on this trend - projects promise AI integration for smart contract management, blockchain optimisation, and even predictive AI-based systems. However, practical implementation of these ideas has yet to deliver significant tangible benefits.
5. Widespread Public Attention
The popularity of artificial intelligence has created a powerful market narrative, amplified by media hype and speculative interest. Cryptocurrency projects are actively embracing this trend, while politicians openly discuss crypto reserves, new speculative instruments, and measures to stimulate industry growth.
The modern world is on the brink of a new era, dominated by multipolarity, technological leaps, and new challenges. The parallels with the late 1990s are evident: just like back then, we are witnessing the collapse of old structures and the emergence of new forms of global interaction. However, today, the scale of these changes is much greater, and the outcomes will define global politics for decades to come.
During the 1998 market crash, low oil prices were a natural consequence of the crisis. However, today’s situation might be artificially constructed. Donald Trump and other Western politicians have already expressed their desire to pressure OPEC into increasing production to lower prices, thereby reducing Russia’s revenues and easing inflationary pressures in the West. If this pressure on OPEC fails, regulators or key market players may intensify rhetoric about an impending recession, leveraging weak macroeconomic data, high energy prices, and volatility in key sectors. This could scare investors, leading to reduced investment, lower consumption, and a slowdown in market activity - essentially a self-fulfilling prophecy that pressures energy prices and indices without fundamental reasons for a collapse.
Another shock to the markets could come from tariff wars, whose full impact remains unclear to participants and could be significantly dramatised in the next month or two.
How reasonable do you think it is to draw parallels between today and the late 1990s, including the formation of the dot-com bubble?
1. Political Instability and Paradigm Shifts
The political landscape of the late 1990s was marked by rising authoritarian trends in several regions, including the Middle East, Latin America, China, and Russia. Local conflicts, the rise of radical movements, and terrorist attacks - such as the 1998 bombing of the U.S. embassy—signalled increasing instability. By the late 1990s, anti-globalisation sentiments and criticism of international organisations had begun to emerge, reflecting growing dissatisfaction with economic inequality and cultural homogenisation. This period saw a return of regional rivalries and new threats, pushing the world toward a more complex multipolar system—a shift that began back then.
In the 2020s, we are witnessing similar trends: the rise of authoritarianism and populism in certain countries, growing tensions between globalisation and nationalism, and increased political polarisation, which undermines governments’ ability to develop long-term strategies.
2. Economic Instability
The Asian financial crisis of 1997 and Russia’s 1998 default had a shocking impact on the global economy. However, the U.S. stock market, after a sharp correction, continued to grow, fuelled by low interest rates - ultimately leading to the dot-com crash in 2000.
Today, the effects of the pandemic, the energy crisis, and the war in Ukraine continue to shape the global economy. Central banks are in a difficult position: they must raise rates to combat inflation, but doing so could trigger a recession, not to mention the potential for trade wars. Economic policy remains a source of uncertainty, just as it was in the late 1990s.
3. Technological Breakthrough
The internet in the late 1990s opened up entirely new opportunities, much like AI is transforming entire industries today. Companies are integrating AI into finance, healthcare, manufacturing, marketing, and even everyday life, promising enormous benefits. Cryptocurrencies, in turn, are incorporating AI solutions into their ecosystems, developing projects based on automation and machine learning to attract new investors.
4. Expectations Outpacing Reality
As in the late 1990s, expectations for AI are already exceeding current economic benefits. Many companies invest in AI just to stay relevant, even if their understanding of the technology is limited. Cryptocurrencies are capitalising on this trend - projects promise AI integration for smart contract management, blockchain optimisation, and even predictive AI-based systems. However, practical implementation of these ideas has yet to deliver significant tangible benefits.
5. Widespread Public Attention
The popularity of artificial intelligence has created a powerful market narrative, amplified by media hype and speculative interest. Cryptocurrency projects are actively embracing this trend, while politicians openly discuss crypto reserves, new speculative instruments, and measures to stimulate industry growth.
The modern world is on the brink of a new era, dominated by multipolarity, technological leaps, and new challenges. The parallels with the late 1990s are evident: just like back then, we are witnessing the collapse of old structures and the emergence of new forms of global interaction. However, today, the scale of these changes is much greater, and the outcomes will define global politics for decades to come.
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