BTC.Prj.2019.P03E06.V2.BTC.Critical point

24 de jul. de 2019

Continuing on with the previous post, I have tweaked the hypothesis based on recent information, others opinion and the fib.pitchfork channel, etc.

24 de jul. de 2019

Nota

25 de jul. de 2019

Nota

Lets talk about now.
<Note> We have hit the expected resistance as this was a respected resistance and then support zone. We have noted a decisive pass on the 9950 mark but did not for the 10150 mark.
<Note> The sloping trend line (in blue) is playing a key role now with the confirmation of this bounce, so we need to keep this in mind. However we are at the micro- trend level, bearish,
Now, how likely are we to move higher? I listen or follow a few knowledgeable people (as I'm still a student) and they say the likelihood or probability is on the downside. However we need to watch the next 4 HRS to see what happens here. If it drops then we look at to test the 9400 line again with a potential of 1 if not 2 bounces.

If we break down the 9400, then we look at the 8900 to 8500. There is a chance this will break. Hence I'm going in about 30% of my fiat for going long at this range. Its possible it can break lower to the 7K range. We can then re-asses what is next if or when this happens as there are many levels to consider at that time.
Note: We have a relevant support line at 7500.

Lets see how the daily candle closes. A 4 HRLY open and close below the sloping support line, then its down for more.

The 8500 to 8900 is a real puzzle as many people have their eyes on it, not just for the CME gap.
Since everyone is looking at it, it has 50% chance that it will happen or get overshot or undershot.
A real psychological test.

DAILY RSI Chart: Note zone of resistance. If it goes above this, then another bullish indicator, however its still indicating the down trend for now.
facebook.com/ChainCreator/videos/955504298146071/?t=3

DAILY Chart: (An idea only at this point) A possible downward wedge pattern, which can support the hypothesis for a big bounce at the 8500 to 8900 range.
Howerver we need to see what happens in the next 3 or 5 days.


2 HRLY Chart: Divergences

25 de jul. de 2019

Nota

Ooops DAILY RSI Chart:

25 de jul. de 2019

Nota

After reviewing my initial post above... I think I overlooked the 0.618 fib level. Wow, bad mistake and a few other clues...idiot.
The above is far to bearish because I have always stated that the entry is between 8400 to 8900. My chart didn't quite convey that. So I have updated this here. My thoughts now after seeing today and the past few days, people are reluctant to sell. Hence my final conclusion, 8900 is a real possibility for the bottom.