Is Bitcoin a repeat of the end of last year?

Today the price of Bitcoin, down to break through the moving averages ma18 and ma6. But it still looks like it's in a box.

We look at the 3 day chart, although the bottom divergence of macd did not form, but the bottom deviation condition did not disappear, ma144 formed a technical support (while the weekly chart is also ma144 support).
If btc fall below the moving average ma144 here, it should be a major failure for the bulls. So the bulls mast resist tenaciously here.
The position of contracts in each trading platform is also declining. Since the quarterly contract delivery date is coming, I think the main force will wait until the new contract is open eddy and will increase the position.
From the above two angles, the probability of short-term shock in the box is greater.

Summary: In the 3 day chart, if macd forms a “golden fork”, it will be a chance to rebound;And below ma144, in theory continuethed the trend of shorts.