BTCUSD: New Range Or New Lows?

18 de nov. de 2018

Bitcoin update: Since the sharp sell off a few days ago, price seems to have found some stability. The appearance of two long wicks and inside bars certainly add up to signs of short term strength. It is a good location to cover shorts, or carefully add to long term inventory. The broader structure is now in a much less favorable position for a more significant price recovery any time soon.

Although this market is still range bound when viewed from the broader perspective, it still has some room to retest the recent low of 5188. A close below the 5430 area will trigger a momentum continuation pattern toward lower prices.

Before you get sucked into the hype and nonsense surrounding this market, keep in mind that the 4900 area is the lower boundary of the largest degree .618 support zone. This zone has been in play since June and still holds. This means, as ugly as the chart may look on smaller time frames, the market in general is still maintaining the price location where a broader reversal is a high probability.

On top of that, the most recent sell off was basically triggered by a tweet. A mining dispute that moved the price hundreds of points in about 15 minutes. This type of vulnerability is a risk that is very prevalent in these markets, particularly since there is no regulation. Insiders can use whatever means necessary to push the herd out of positions, or worse lure them into shorts. It is how large players accumulate positions at great prices. They don't buy highs.

Fundamentally not much has changed and we remain long term bullish. We have bought into the recent sell off to add to our inventory, but carefully. If price goes lower, we can handle it. We are a strong hand, and if it no longer meets our buying criteria, we will stop buying and just hold. For us, shorting at these levels (even if we could) makes no sense in terms of risk.

We keep our long term and short term strategies separate. Since we are playing a strong defense, we will not take just any swing trade long trigger that appears.

Short term structure now favors weakness so for us to take a swing trade long, we need to see a particular reversal structure in place. And since it requires the market to make an initial move higher, we will sit it out until it matures into the pattern that fits our more selective criteria. This helps to filter out the noise and fake outs that are highly probable at the current level.

In summary, timing markets is about knowing how to adjust more than anything else. We don't operate with an "absolutes" mindset, or the losing mentality which runs rampant in this space.

Our long term perspective still stands even in the face of the 6K break. We recognize the opportunity and risks and stick to our plan with our only adjustments being to increase our defensive measures. And for us that means being more selective on the short term, while consolidating our portfolio on the long term. Just like the insiders talked the price lower, they can talk it higher just as fast. You don't have to have a large account to think and maneuver like a large player.