I issued a caution last week to be more careful trading and to consider thinking about limiting your risk and exposure by 1. taking smaller positions, 2. cashing out your profits and 3. keeping a good chunk of your portfolio in USD or USDT. I continue to stand behind that statement as the Crypto industry market cap as a whole is down to 650 Billion from the high over 800 Billion last week. This may just be a minor set back, and we could be on our way to 1 Trillion USD very soon... BUT if it is not a Major pullback could catch a lot of traders with their pants down.
We still see Altcoins pump 20, 30, 40, 50+% everyday, but now its only a handful of coins instead of hundreds. Most altcoins are red on the day and this has been happening all week. Also, my trade alerts are not performing. This raises red flags and suggest to me that the market may be changing.
The idea of pulling out of this market, which has made many people fortunes over the last year may be the last thing on your mind, but I just want you new traders to be aware that the only thing for certain, is that MARKETS ALWAYS CHANGE. You new traders haven't been around along enough to see the other side these things. But Q4 of 2017 spoiled us! I have not seen a market this easy and generous in my lifetime since I started trading in 2007.
The important concept I am attempting to communicate is that, sometimes it's better to risk missing a little action and wait for the confirmation that the market is still healthy/bullish rather than leave yourself exposed to a market that is incredibly overextended (which it definitely is).
The reality is that this market has a LONG way to fall if it decides to turn bearish. Getting cut in half and then some would not surprise me.
Bitcoin has been in a bull market for 2 years now and Q4 of 2017 had explosive growth which could indicate Exhaustion (One last big push before a decline). Bitcoin 13,000 might feel cheap and low to you now… but remember this thing was only $1,000 1 year ago… and $3,000 4 months ago.
Takeaway:
I recommend to be more selective with your trades going forward and be ready to pull out and sit back and watch the market. By all means continue trading! Just control yourselves and control the excitement; Leave your mind open to the idea that the market may not be as generous to you in Q1 2018 as it has been to you in the last quarter.
I know this isn't fun and exciting advice. but if it saves even one of you new traders from losing your shirt, I would feel like I have done my job.
-TheChasm