BTC - WHEN MOON ?
Well, I've been waiting for this Bear Market for some time. Let's see when we can accumulate more BTCs again.
The normal pattern of BTC is to rest on previous highs for a while, collecting accumulators and eventually dropping into a congestion zone forming a BearTrap, then turning on the Bullmarket button again.
In fact, this is a reality for most assets, of course there are deviations from this pattern, due to exclusively punctual and proprietary factors of each one, but in general it is respected because it is about how the universe flows.
But I will not go into that philosophy for now.
BTC is expected to rest between 13k and 20k during this BearMarket, this should last less than 2 years, time is the hardest thing to predict. But I believe that in the middle of 2023 new movements will start to happen and the trigger for our purchase will be when we see the BearTrap at the bottom of the accumulation, this BearTrap should reach close to 6k, around that... below that I think there will be no more sellers and the risk of selling will be so great that the shorters will not have the courage to remain active.
Drying sellers on this BearTrap at 6k, BTC will be taken over by Bulls again and we will have happy days again.
In this chart I have marked the zones we must pay attention to if we wish to participate in yet another glorious resurrection of BTC.
The questions that lead us to think about the maintenance of this Bearmarket is the amount of "Fleas" that are in this BTC "dog".
One of them is Microstrategy which announced its leverage of practically 50% of its position... (it took out a 200 million loan with 450 million guarantee) its market position is approximately 130 thousand BTCs at an average price of 30k . Let's do some math... 130,000 BTC at 30K is approximately $4 Billion.
Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy’s CEO and founder, recently in an interview reported that the firm was “10x overcollateralized” on its bitcoin-backed loan.
This is kind of obvious, if BTC loses 90% of the value with respect to their position, their position will go from 4 billion dollars to 400 million dollars and they will have their margin called to cover the loan (twice 200 million).
This would theoretically happen if BTC was worth the 3k dollars.
The Market knows this, it will look for this stop.
But Saylor shouldn't be so stupid as to go around peddling his weakness without having cards up his sleeve. Nor is it a Noobie trader who will simply wait for the price to reach its stop without any adjustment. So when Saylor realizes that he can be stopped, he will have to make partials and adjust his position before touching the limit, it is precisely this type of adjustment, not only of this trader specifically but of the others who are probably in step, being the cause of BearTrap at the bottom , around 6k, which is when they will probably add another loan or new players will enter.
BTC transacts around 1 million BTC a day, its 180k BTC does not correspond to 20% of the total transacted, but this concentrated and directional amount can cause occasional damage to the price.
On the Fundamentalist side, BTC is increasingly proving to be a globalized tool of great use. This last BullRun caught the attention of banks and companies, the next one will consolidate it as a financial and Technological tool. The Taproot taking effect already gives us a sense of what it can become and the new Halving that will take place in mid-2024 will boost the price even more. Therefore its fundamentals are more solid and better than before, prepared for new Historic Tops.
Remember RULE NUMBER 1
"Only invest the money you save for drinking, never invest the money you save for Eating."
The normal pattern of BTC is to rest on previous highs for a while, collecting accumulators and eventually dropping into a congestion zone forming a BearTrap, then turning on the Bullmarket button again.
In fact, this is a reality for most assets, of course there are deviations from this pattern, due to exclusively punctual and proprietary factors of each one, but in general it is respected because it is about how the universe flows.
But I will not go into that philosophy for now.
BTC is expected to rest between 13k and 20k during this BearMarket, this should last less than 2 years, time is the hardest thing to predict. But I believe that in the middle of 2023 new movements will start to happen and the trigger for our purchase will be when we see the BearTrap at the bottom of the accumulation, this BearTrap should reach close to 6k, around that... below that I think there will be no more sellers and the risk of selling will be so great that the shorters will not have the courage to remain active.
Drying sellers on this BearTrap at 6k, BTC will be taken over by Bulls again and we will have happy days again.
In this chart I have marked the zones we must pay attention to if we wish to participate in yet another glorious resurrection of BTC.
The questions that lead us to think about the maintenance of this Bearmarket is the amount of "Fleas" that are in this BTC "dog".
One of them is Microstrategy which announced its leverage of practically 50% of its position... (it took out a 200 million loan with 450 million guarantee) its market position is approximately 130 thousand BTCs at an average price of 30k . Let's do some math... 130,000 BTC at 30K is approximately $4 Billion.
Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy’s CEO and founder, recently in an interview reported that the firm was “10x overcollateralized” on its bitcoin-backed loan.
This is kind of obvious, if BTC loses 90% of the value with respect to their position, their position will go from 4 billion dollars to 400 million dollars and they will have their margin called to cover the loan (twice 200 million).
This would theoretically happen if BTC was worth the 3k dollars.
The Market knows this, it will look for this stop.
But Saylor shouldn't be so stupid as to go around peddling his weakness without having cards up his sleeve. Nor is it a Noobie trader who will simply wait for the price to reach its stop without any adjustment. So when Saylor realizes that he can be stopped, he will have to make partials and adjust his position before touching the limit, it is precisely this type of adjustment, not only of this trader specifically but of the others who are probably in step, being the cause of BearTrap at the bottom , around 6k, which is when they will probably add another loan or new players will enter.
BTC transacts around 1 million BTC a day, its 180k BTC does not correspond to 20% of the total transacted, but this concentrated and directional amount can cause occasional damage to the price.
On the Fundamentalist side, BTC is increasingly proving to be a globalized tool of great use. This last BullRun caught the attention of banks and companies, the next one will consolidate it as a financial and Technological tool. The Taproot taking effect already gives us a sense of what it can become and the new Halving that will take place in mid-2024 will boost the price even more. Therefore its fundamentals are more solid and better than before, prepared for new Historic Tops.
Remember RULE NUMBER 1
"Only invest the money you save for drinking, never invest the money you save for Eating."
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