BTC Macro Bear Target Range Sept 23
As BTC is deciding on whether to find a double bottom here or set new lows, I figured it's time to discuss possible macro bottom targets for this cycle by using historical liquidity ranges & incorporating the famous 80-90% drop from ATH figures.
Where we're @:
- BTC is down -72.26% from its ATH of 69k
- Current support level is very strong because it's both the 2017 ATH & the breakout level before setting new highs in Dec 2020 (didn't break until after 4 weeks of rejection). It's also now creating a new major liquidity range for future retracements/support.
To summarize, the 19K level is historically important & the chart is telling us that it will be very important in the future as well.
Where we could be going:
I hear a lot of talk about
13K - 15K being the bottom, but we've spent barely any time there, so I would give that a low probability weighting.
Looking at the weekly TF, the 6.8K -
12K range is the most significant liquidity range that exists in the thousands, with BTC spending a total of 116 weeks in that range between 2018 & 2020.
To put that into perspective, BTC has been around for 715 weeks since its creation (Jan 2009 - present) so 116/715 = 16%, meaning that it has spent 16% of its existence within this range.
12K Bottom:
- Major support level
- (-82.58%) from ATH, which falls within the 80-90% historical bottom range
6.8K Bottom:
- Greater support than12K & represents the bottom of a massive historical liquidity range (took 15 weeks to break down before bottoming in 2018 & took 5 weeks to break above after the 2020 low)
- (-90%) from ATH, which is the peak of the historical bottom range
My guess is that the bottom will be between 7K - 10K, but anywhere within that range is an amazing LT entry, and it's important to pick some here & there on the way down & to not get greedy.
Remember, this isn't FUD, it's taking an objective look @ an extremely volatile asset in an extreme period of economic and societal uncertainty.
Be objective, follow the charts, avoid the hype, listen to LeMan.
Where we're @:
- BTC is down -72.26% from its ATH of 69k
- Current support level is very strong because it's both the 2017 ATH & the breakout level before setting new highs in Dec 2020 (didn't break until after 4 weeks of rejection). It's also now creating a new major liquidity range for future retracements/support.
To summarize, the 19K level is historically important & the chart is telling us that it will be very important in the future as well.
Where we could be going:
I hear a lot of talk about
13K - 15K being the bottom, but we've spent barely any time there, so I would give that a low probability weighting.Looking at the weekly TF, the 6.8K -
12K range is the most significant liquidity range that exists in the thousands, with BTC spending a total of 116 weeks in that range between 2018 & 2020. To put that into perspective, BTC has been around for 715 weeks since its creation (Jan 2009 - present) so 116/715 = 16%, meaning that it has spent 16% of its existence within this range.
12K Bottom:- Major support level
- (-82.58%) from ATH, which falls within the 80-90% historical bottom range
6.8K Bottom:
- Greater support than
12K & represents the bottom of a massive historical liquidity range (took 15 weeks to break down before bottoming in 2018 & took 5 weeks to break above after the 2020 low)- (-90%) from ATH, which is the peak of the historical bottom range
My guess is that the bottom will be between 7K - 10K, but anywhere within that range is an amazing LT entry, and it's important to pick some here & there on the way down & to not get greedy.
Remember, this isn't FUD, it's taking an objective look @ an extremely volatile asset in an extreme period of economic and societal uncertainty.
Be objective, follow the charts, avoid the hype, listen to LeMan.
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