Are We There Yet? (BTC)
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Why would you want to trade in any other market but this one? There never is a dull moment , its always exciting , always giving us curve balls time and time again.
This year are streak at marco predictions is over , it was good run you can check them out here below.
I was so sure that the bottom was in , there was so much evidence that infact it was in , countless of on-chain metrics and indicators flashed the bottom but its never that easy with Bitcoin is it , below is a TA that is now invalided showing you all the data I used to come to that conclusion at the time.
Mistake here was getting over confident and ignoring a few critical signals that had not flashed bottom just yet , which now have. Everything was in fact going according to plan until FTX black swan placed everything out of wack or so I tried to convince myself that was the case , that if infact this blackswan would not have happened I would have still kept my Marco streak going.
The reality is that I was wrong and the FTX blackswan was always going to happen , it had to happen because every event like this creates something which is needed in the crypto space and so in comes proof of reserves which in the long run will make crypto a better and safer place.
So what your about to see might shock you because maybe it was just that dam easy .
We took 1064 days from Cycle bottom in 2015 till 2017 cycle top .
We took 1064days from cycle bottom in 2018 till 2021 cycle top.
We took 364 days from 2017 cycle top till 2018 cycle bottom
We are currently now just over 364 days from cycle top , is this the bottom? most likely.
This model you see infront of you in log scale is the best Bitcoin model at the moment , atleast I have not found better , the other log scales , rainbow scales etc have all failed except this one for now.
I reached out to the creator of this model and asked him if it would be possible to add projections to this model and he declined , regardless still thankful for this amazing model because it picked out the top perfectly this cycle and the bottom of the last cycles.
Lets really zoom in and see how incredible this model is :
The covid crash , it wicked down and caught the pico bottom.
Caught the pico top twice in 2021 .
The june 2022 crash.
The new all time low of this year that happened this week.
Look at this touch , pico bottom of the channel , simply mind blowing .
So as you can see this model is the best we have for now and we shall me use it until the day it fails.
If we take a look back the 2015 cycle we can see that from wave 3 to 4 Bitcoin moved back up to the blue line before going down one final leg.
It seems that we have pulled off the same pattern this cycle.
All the cycles are linked together , after many hours of searching you find the patterns , at the start of this year for example I was following 2017 bear market fractal that played out 1:1 for over 60days .
It was unreal .
USDT dominance chart has also formed a double top pattern , with the crash in May and this month its hit exactly the same level , been following this for months , once we break this support line we will start a major relief rally .
So we are doing pretty much exactly the same thing in exactly the same time if cycle repeats again then Oct 2025 Bitcoin will hit 90-150k.
This year are streak at marco predictions is over , it was good run you can check them out here below.
I was so sure that the bottom was in , there was so much evidence that infact it was in , countless of on-chain metrics and indicators flashed the bottom but its never that easy with Bitcoin is it , below is a TA that is now invalided showing you all the data I used to come to that conclusion at the time.
Mistake here was getting over confident and ignoring a few critical signals that had not flashed bottom just yet , which now have. Everything was in fact going according to plan until FTX black swan placed everything out of wack or so I tried to convince myself that was the case , that if infact this blackswan would not have happened I would have still kept my Marco streak going.
The reality is that I was wrong and the FTX blackswan was always going to happen , it had to happen because every event like this creates something which is needed in the crypto space and so in comes proof of reserves which in the long run will make crypto a better and safer place.
So what your about to see might shock you because maybe it was just that dam easy .
We took 1064 days from Cycle bottom in 2015 till 2017 cycle top .
We took 1064days from cycle bottom in 2018 till 2021 cycle top.
We took 364 days from 2017 cycle top till 2018 cycle bottom
We are currently now just over 364 days from cycle top , is this the bottom? most likely.
This model you see infront of you in log scale is the best Bitcoin model at the moment , atleast I have not found better , the other log scales , rainbow scales etc have all failed except this one for now.
I reached out to the creator of this model and asked him if it would be possible to add projections to this model and he declined , regardless still thankful for this amazing model because it picked out the top perfectly this cycle and the bottom of the last cycles.
Lets really zoom in and see how incredible this model is :
The covid crash , it wicked down and caught the pico bottom.
Caught the pico top twice in 2021 .
The june 2022 crash.
The new all time low of this year that happened this week.
Look at this touch , pico bottom of the channel , simply mind blowing .
So as you can see this model is the best we have for now and we shall me use it until the day it fails.
If we take a look back the 2015 cycle we can see that from wave 3 to 4 Bitcoin moved back up to the blue line before going down one final leg.
It seems that we have pulled off the same pattern this cycle.
All the cycles are linked together , after many hours of searching you find the patterns , at the start of this year for example I was following 2017 bear market fractal that played out 1:1 for over 60days .
It was unreal .
USDT dominance chart has also formed a double top pattern , with the crash in May and this month its hit exactly the same level , been following this for months , once we break this support line we will start a major relief rally .
So we are doing pretty much exactly the same thing in exactly the same time if cycle repeats again then Oct 2025 Bitcoin will hit 90-150k.
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