Bitcoin Daily Update (day 239)

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.

Previous analysis / position: “The 1h triangle comes to a head in about 13 hours. I can’t imagine consolidating $6,400 any longer than that.” / Short USDT:USD from 0.968 and short ETH:USD from $200.50
Patterns: Wyckoff hinge
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,383 | R: $6,419
BTCUSDSHORTS: Current candle is entirely below bottom or triangle, will be interested to see if it closes that way
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Hovering on it / neutral
Medium term trend (4 week MA): Weekly candle that just opened is well above / bullish
Long term trend ( 32 Week): bearish
Overall trend: Neutral
Volume: Lowest weekly volume since the price has been > $1,000
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,530 | 0.5 = $6,441 | 0.382 = $6,351
Candlestick analysis: Weekly doji | back to back daily dojis with tweezer top and tweezer bottom (never seen that before)
Ichimoku Cloud: 4h cloud with strong support at $6,400 is starting to thin
TD’ Sequential: Weekly r4 | If Oct close < $6,390 then will be a r3 | 4h g2 is > g1 at $6,420
Visible Range: Looking back to September 6th' (when this range started) point of control at $6,400 and two high volume nodes from $6,386 - $6,464 | This is also the highest liquidity zone for all of 2018
Price action: 24h: +0.14% | 2w: -0.34% | 1m: -2.99%
Bollinger Bands: Price back above MA and top band in line with bear trend line. Indicates retest is likely
Trendline: At $6,520
Daily Trend: Chop
Fractals: 2 Up: $6,471 | 2 Down: $6,354
RSI: Stuck at 50
Stochastic: Monthly < 25 and looks like it is about 5 months away from bullish cross. Did a great job of calling the bottom of the last bear market

Summary: After the last couple days didn’t lead to any solid significant conclusions I thought it would be best to heed some age old wisdom:

when in doubt, zoom out

I do not like the monthly chart other than for calling extremes (tops/bottoms) and the current environment made me think it was worth another look. That led to the following post:

Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart

Using the Stochastic and TD’ Sequential I came to surprisingly similar conclusion as I did in the 3 Day Comparison where I used mostly moving averages and trendlines. That has given me more confidence in my target but I will not allow it to cloud my judgement.

I have not added any more to my position and I have not changed my overall game plan. I did call for the $6,400 trading range to come to an end by now and that turned out to be a bolder prediction that I thought.

Meanwhile the traditional markets are really heating up and I will continue focusing on them while waiting for this range to break. Orders are still set to add to my ETH position at $198.4 | $194.9 | $187.7