BTCUSD: Lulls The Herd To Sleep. Break Out Coming?

7 de out. de 2018

BTCUSD update: After some unusual activity on Friday that almost lead to a break out, this market is still going no where. This is actually a good thing because the longer it lingers, the greater the short squeeze will be. With the well established higher low around the 6400 area, structure continues to point to strength.

It is amazing to see the herd mentality in action, not on the charts but on the feedback we get. The herd is either bearish, or losing interest. This is the type of environment where opportunity flourishes, not when price is pushing 10K.

As far as our swing trade, we remain long. It is just a matter of time before this market breaks out. We are holding for our short term targets, not forcing trades or flip flopping like many others.

In fact, the most recent close on the daily chart is presenting yet another potential long setup. As long as the bullish trend line holds, the bias is toward higher prices. I don't make this stuff up, it is what the market is showing.

In summary, the fact that activity is low and the crowd is losing interest is a great sign. Bitcoin consolidated for TWO years before it broke out and ran to the 20K area in 2017. The marketers, bloggers and "experts" were full of negative sentiment, to the point where they were writing that Bitcoin was a failure.

A weak market sells off fast, it does not linger. The longer this market consolidates, the greater the population of trades. One side is going to be wrong and it can be triggered by a positive or negative news event.

The structure leans toward the strong side, and that is what we follow. When the break out happens, it is going to be dramatic, and attract the reactive traders. And that is the time to sell, not into a consolidation that is establishing higher lows on multiple time frames.

Remember, a chart is a representation of order flow. Intent can be detected from price patterns and "what price is not doing" which carries more value than any oscillator can provide. Greed and fear ultimately drive prices in ANY market, and these forces have natural expressions. That is where a much more honest view of Bitcoin can be found. Focus on price.

8 de out. de 2018

Nota

BTCUSD update: We are looking for a close above 6830. If this market can accomplish such a close, then we anticipate a push into the low to mid 7Ks. This is what the market structure points to, not our feelings or opinions. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and by no means do we expect people to agree with our outlook. In fact the more that the herd disagrees, the better but the opinions are either to one extreme or the other. Do not get married to your opinions, they will empty your bank account especially on the shorter term.

When the day is over, it is the market that is right. We listen, evaluate and adjust. That's what market timers do. If this market starts showing clear signs of weakness, we will make the necessary adjustments to our positions. And in order for that to happen, we need to see a close below the 6400 area at least.