BTCUSD bad news bear scenario: Bitcoin rising wedge break down?

Many traders have noticed this rising wedge, so I will not claim some first discovery here.

But the strong leg down gave me some measurements, and rather interesting prediction.
And if that was wave 1 of 5, then it quite often proceeds to the 4.236 or 4.618.
Thus the fib targets match with 'traditional' targets for a rising wedge break.

Maybe it was just a bear trap, but lets see. But If this plays out,
it will be an interesting study of the ''pattern'' strategies that might have Fibonacci based proofs.

Background:
This is a continuation of my calculations to find the 'bottom' and consider whether it will go any lower or not.

First I saw 3618 on CoinBase as important which had been on my charts for over 6 months:

As it was being approached, I fined tuned the target a based on the downward momentum:

Getting closer, I started to see a bigger picture coming together:

As it bounced, I had hoped for a 4500-4700 peak:

But then 4425 came into focus as the big hurdle:

So here we are now, trying to gauge the retrace, which I think will be ONE of these TWO scenarios: