Miner Capitulation again in BTC; price expected in a year

27 de mar. de 2020

MM Crypto and Carl the Moon in their videos this morning mentioned the history of miner capitulation in the "hash ribbons" indicator and how that has created Bitcoin buy opportunities a few weeks later. A year later BTC has always been significantly higher in price after those buy opps. So I decided to do my own research to come up with what is a reasonable expectation for price in a year since miner capitulation is happening now again.

I got into the weekly BLX chart on tradingview. I added the "hash ribbons" indicator to look at miner capitulation dates and the buy dates shortly thereafter. I then looked at the BTC price one year after the buy dates. Here is the history:

Aug 2011 Miner Capitulation $8.16

Nov 2011 Buy Signal $2.01

Nov 2012 1 Yr after Buy $12.40 517%

Apr 2012 Miner Capitulation $4.90

Jun 2012 Buy Signal $6.90

Jun 2013 1 Yr after Buy $99.39 1340%

Dec 2012 Miner Capitulation $13.38

Jan 2013 Buy Signal $20.48

Jan 2014 1 Yr after Buy $816.24 3886%

Dec 2014 Miner Capitulation $262.65

Jan 2015 Buy Signal $227.01

Jan 2016 1 Yr after Buy $447.82 97.3%

May 2015 Miner Capitulation $240.58

Late May 2015 Buy Signal $231.56

Late May 2016 1 Yr after Buy $575.65 149%

Jul 2016 Miner Capitulation $623.03

Aug 2016 Buy Signal $572.67

Aug 2017 1 Yr after Buy $4335.89 657%

Oct 2018 Miner Capitulation $6443.73

Jan 2019 Buy Signal $3533.25

Jan 2020 1 Yr after Buy $8702.65 146%

The average gain 1 year after the 7 buy signals is 970%. If you take out the "outlier" 3886% in Jan 2014, then the average for the other 6 gains is 484%. If you just take the last 4 gains the average is 262%.

In Nov 2019 there was a miner capitulation and the price was $6914.95. One month later in Dec 2019 there was a buy signal at $6438.82. Therefore in Dec 2020, it is anticipated that the BTC price will be 262 to 484% over that buy signal price or $23000 to $37000.

We just got another miner capitulation a week or so ago at $5832. The average price of the buy signal in a few weeks based on history is $5395 or by May 2020. 1 year after that buy signal the Bitcoin price can be expected to increase 262 to 484% or be at $19000 to $31000 by May 2021.

I think these are reasonable expectations for the Bitcoin price a year from now based on past historical gains 1 year after buy signals from miner capitulations.