Wave history repeating itself?
Atualizado
Probably the generally accepted wave count wasn't wrong. My previous post was only a speculative idea, if it was true, then BTC has reached its bottom with the 5th wave at $6100 or something. But looking at the daily chart, we might have had something else.
Probably the first 5 waves were a downtrend leading diagonal pattern, wave 1 being the extended one, then a short wave 3 and a slightly longer wave 5.
Then also probably market indecision generated two successive WXYXZ patterns and that wasn't a wave 4 as I speculated. If that is true, then a new downtrend has started repeating the downtrend beginning pattern: extended wave 1, then wave 3 finding the lowest low at $6180, and then retrace. In this case, wave 4 has just ended and we are going to draw a wave 5 equal to wave 3 or slightly longer: target would be somewhere at $5600-5900, maybe on Sunday or something. I think this could be an ending diagonal pattern (cause diagonal it is) and bullish trend should resume after that. I am saying this because of some Fib circles indications, and also because it seems that RSI can't drop below 16. I've also dropped MACD in my chart, replaced it with Stochastic RSI; it might sometimes give false signals but it's much faster and can be confirmed with RSI and CCI; now it just made a bearish cross on the 2h chart from a maximum value - that should mean "sell!"; RSI allows that and CCI seems to confirm, even if not seen on the daily.
Please note that this idea is also speculative; will be only valid if we exit the new uptrend channel that I've traced.
Also be cautious, some other TA's predict a drop below $5000.
Probably the first 5 waves were a downtrend leading diagonal pattern, wave 1 being the extended one, then a short wave 3 and a slightly longer wave 5.
Then also probably market indecision generated two successive WXYXZ patterns and that wasn't a wave 4 as I speculated. If that is true, then a new downtrend has started repeating the downtrend beginning pattern: extended wave 1, then wave 3 finding the lowest low at $6180, and then retrace. In this case, wave 4 has just ended and we are going to draw a wave 5 equal to wave 3 or slightly longer: target would be somewhere at $5600-5900, maybe on Sunday or something. I think this could be an ending diagonal pattern (cause diagonal it is) and bullish trend should resume after that. I am saying this because of some Fib circles indications, and also because it seems that RSI can't drop below 16. I've also dropped MACD in my chart, replaced it with Stochastic RSI; it might sometimes give false signals but it's much faster and can be confirmed with RSI and CCI; now it just made a bearish cross on the 2h chart from a maximum value - that should mean "sell!"; RSI allows that and CCI seems to confirm, even if not seen on the daily.
Please note that this idea is also speculative; will be only valid if we exit the new uptrend channel that I've traced.
Also be cautious, some other TA's predict a drop below $5000.
Nota
... and look at the 2h perspective that supports my idea:Nota
Looking closer at the daily chart, this scenario might play a little different or even fail. We had a bullish engulfing pattern, followed by a bullish harami, if it can be interpreted this way. I say *if*, because after a bullish engulfing it's arguable if we're still in a downtrend, so the harami might be bearish.No matter which the case is, we should go sideways for a while, so look at the 2h/4h chart for signals.
If the scenario fails, the bulls will not have too much strength and volume to pass the $6700-6800 resistance; in the other case, big chances are that the $6000 support will stop the bears for now. So no moon, neither crash yet, but I think this thing will go lower in the near future, so I wouldn't get in yet.
Nota
Some circles are still trying to push us down. Expect a break down or break up in 8h.Nota
I've jumped a level tracing the resistance/support circle; my bad; however the timing was right, just that the circle to reach was not the 100% one, but the 0.786. It pushed us up but we were stopped at the outer magenta circle, so we are going to follow sideways the lower magenta circle for 6 hours more...Nota
Besides the circles, we have an inverted cup & handle; expect another drop when we reach the grey circle...Nota
It just wanted to test again the magenta circles; but I think it was a bull trap; the inverted cup was a head testing expansion pattern of a H&S. This should normally take us down at least to $6200 if the prices are not totally manipulated.Nota
Ok, scenario invalidated; now testing the higher blue circle and the dotted blue downtrend line (top of the descending triangle). This might be a reversal, but only if we break up the triangle. Let's see.Nota
So, here's some updated info. We had a pump that made us cross all the small circles and the resistance lines at $6650 at $6700. However the bull volume was not as high as the recent maximum bear volumes, and it now dropped again to near insignificant. The H&S and inverted cup and handle patterns failed. We are still testing and nearly crossing the dotted blue trendline, but this has already happened before. We've already had a 12345 downtrend impulse pattern down to $6100, so the recent sideways trend might have been a couple of WXY waves. Therefore, at the small volume we have, I think we are now building another diagonal pattern that will stop around $6900 at the outer big magenta circle, then retrace down. The recent daily RSI maxima suggests this too. Probably the next update will come with a new chart.Nota
No need for new idea yet; diagonal it is! Even if wave patterns are very distorted. The Initial idea was not so far from the actual situation; only wave 5 ended at $6100. We are now drawing the 5th wave of the uptrend diagonal, which will probably end on the $6850 support, slightly crossing the dotted black overall downtrend line. There, a sell signal should trigger on the 2h chart, with RSI near 70, CCI above 200 and bearish stochastic RSI cross on top. This already happened on 15min chart but there it's a little premature. All is showing that bearish retrace is imminent; also the daily chart indicators allow it.Trade fechado: objetivo atingido
There is the new update; the target of the initial idea is reached, even if differently, but I wouldn't go long yet...
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