Bitcoin | 50% Down vs 20% Down

18 de set.

Bitcoin is now trading at ~60,000, which is 20% below the All-Time High of 74,000.

➖ If Bitcoin were trading at 37,000, which is 50% below the All-Time High, this would be good before a major political event. We could say, "Bitcoin is trading pretty low already, the correction was really strong so it can recover anytime." This is if the price was trading at 37K, below 40,000 or around 50% below the All-Time High.

➖ Bitcoin is currently trading at 60,000 which can be considered really strong. Bitcoin is trading near resistance. Since Bitcoin is trading near resistance we can say, "Bitcoin is really strong right now. Any kind of unexpected event, market shakeout or strong dynamic can produce a major crash. It has been sideways with a bearish bias for more than six months so be careful."

➖ A descending triangle is a bearish pattern. On this monthly chart, this pattern already broke to the downside. The down-move has been confirmed.

Namaste.

19 de set.

Nota

Focus on the Altcoins. Visit my profile to see all the ones that are growing now.

19 de set.

Trade ativo

It seems people are excited because Bitcoin went up $3,000 dollars.

It is good to see Bitcoin rising and this is support our Altcoins, this is great, but remember that this is only a short-term move. Be careful.

A strong confirmation above $70,000 is necessary to consider Bitcoin bullish.

Say a one or two weekly or monthly close above $71,000. This would definitely mean bullish. Right now, we are only seeing over-leveraged traders being liquidated, nothing more... While the Altcoins grow.

19 de set.

Nota

➖ If Bitcoin moves to 70,000, 3.00B worth of leveraged SHORTs would get liquidated.
➖ If Bitcoin moves to 53,000, 7.78B worth of leveraged LONGs would get liquidated.

Where is the liquid now, up or down?

20 de set.

Nota

Who is ready for a flash crash?

Many ancient accounts are waking up, several today, all more than 15 years dormant; and this is always a bearish signal. This signal is stronger than "Michael Saylor bought Bitcoin," to signal that a drop is coming... Watch out.

20 de set.

Nota

The DXY is turning bullish today after going down since the 12th of September and producing a major low. It seems to be gaining bullish momentum (See 1H).

The DXY moves inverse to Bitcoin.

20 de set.

Trade ativo

This is a very simple dynamic and signal, let me show you this, it might be of your interest.

Bitcoin has been printing lower highs short-term and mid-term... It has been happening now for more than 6 months:

Lower highs is a bearish signal.
Bitcoin has also been printing lower lows.

A lower high leads to a lower low in the bigger structure.

This means that Bitcoin dropping now, as it is expected, would send prices below 49K.
The next fib. level below 49,000 sits around 40,000 - 43,000. That's the main target for this drop but it can go lower.

Prepare for the crash.

Namaste.

20 de set.

Nota

Here you can see the lower highs with the dates (months):

Notice the huge gap between July and August 2024...
Coming from a technical analysis perspective, the bears have the upper-hand.

22 de set.

Nota

I went through many charts... I compared back to Bitcoin.
I did some calculations and still.... While it is confusing and strange and out of the norm, it seems Bitcoin's correction is not yet over.

With that said, the market will let us know clearly... In due time.

The Altcoins are bullish and continue to recover.

Wishing you a lovely Sunday.

Namaste.

22 de set.

Trade ativo

🅱️ Bitcoin Update

Bitcoin is now being rejected exactly at MA200... This is a very strong bearish signal:

Such action will lead to a new low.

Notice how MA200 also worked as resistance in late August.

First the crash, 5-August.
Then the pull-back, a natural market reaction; prices move higher.

Prices move higher and as soon as resistance is found, they tremble... After a short-term higher low, a retest of resistance, MA200 is being confirmed today.

Notice the fact that MA200 wasn't hit today but two days ago.
Notice how prices are rising nicely and then the up-wave loses movement and the candles start to become smaller and finally curve. This is all happening on low volume.

It went from going up fast, to slowing down to finally reverse. We are seeing the start of the reversal now, so prepare for a drop.

The charts don't lie.

Namaste.

23 de set.

Trade ativo

Bitcoin is going up now... What do you guys think: All-Time High or Lower High?

Leave a comment!

23 de set.

Trade ativo

We know the market can only produce two different outcomes, a down-move or an up-move; Bitcoin has been sideways.

Everybody has their own method; everybody has their own way to interpret the data coming from the chart. Everybody has his/her own bias.

When the market was really low in November 2022 I was extremely bullish, I remembered many of you cried fool.

When the market reached really high in early 2024 I became extremely bearish many of you again cried fool.

November 2022 turned out to be the bottom and Bitcoin entered a major, 16 months long bullish phase.

In early 2024 Bitcoin peaked and entered a prolonged corrective phase.

We can be biased in different ways but the market always resolves itself overtime.

We are looking at Bitcoin coming out of the March 2024 74,000 All-Time High. In early March we have a very strong bearish signal; the highest bearish volume in a single day in years (5-March). This indicates lower prices.

Bitcoin produced lower highs until it crashed in early August. We are still within this trend.

From my perspective, there are two ways to consider the market bullish:

1) Oversold everything. The indicators and candles start to give reversal signals.

2) Moving above 71,000.

If Bitcoin is sideways now trading below 71,000 this is bearish because 71,000 is the level that started the early August crash. As long as Bitcoin trades below this level weekly/monthly, we are in bearish territory based on technical analysis. Nobody can argue this because the numbers don't lie.

If Bitcoin crashes and produces a new lower low with lower volume than before with oversold indicators and reversal signals or, Bitcoin crashes and produces a higher low with low volume, we can go bullish from the ground up.

Since Bitcoin is still sideways and trading high, we continue bearish because it is trading within a lower high (below 71K).

We follow the market and we adapt to the market as the market continue to move, as the charts evolve, as prices change.

I am bullish on those pair that are hitting bottom and trading very low.
I am bearish on those pair that are hitting resistance and trading high up.

What about you?

You can be biased or not biased, you can be right just as you can be wrong.
But the fact that you were expecting 100K and yet Bitcoin moved to 49K, means that you don't know what is going on.

Remember, people lost 1Billion betting on Bitcoin LONG and the majority was wrong.

There is no need to guess. Bullish above 71K weekly/monthly, bearish below.

Bitcoin is trading below 71K, the point from which it started a major crash and a multi-year low. As long as this resistance remains at hand, we are only seeing more distribution, consolidation, before another drop.

All previous fractals and patterns broke down completely because Bitcoin never ever behaved like this after the halving, and that is easy to understand. We now have the big institutions so the game is not the same.

Adapt and prepare... You cannot just look at the past and guess.

You have to read all the signals coming from the chart and the subtle signals coming from the entire market. Once you have a combination of the quantitative as well as the qualitative factors of the market, we can achieve better results. But, there is no need to take it too far... Just follow the chart; Lower lows and lower highs means that prices are going down not up.

Namaste.

25 de set.

Trade fechado manualmente

We are no longer bearish on Bitcoin.

We will adjust to new data and reflect this adjustment in future trade-ideas.

Thanks a lot for your continued support.

Namaste.

25 de set.

Trade ativo

Readjustment completed.

👉 We continue 100% bearish on Bitcoin as long as it trades below $70,000/$71,000 on the weekly/monthly close.

➖ If Bitcoin closes monthly above $71,000, we become bullish.
➖ If Bitcoin crashes, we become bullish.

➖ If Bitcoin continues trading daily below $71,000, the bearish bias remains active and we continue focusing on the Altcoins.

👉 Bitcoin is set to crash and produce one major low. It can happen now, September 2024, or later in November 2024.

Thanks a lot for the support.

Namaste.

26 de set.

Nota

Many dormant Bitcoin addresses are waking up. Surely a long-term bearish signal.

26 de set.

Trade ativo

The descending triangle is based on candle close and the pattern was drawn before the August crash. Here is the pattern more people are looking at:

The bold lines are for the candle wicks.
The dashed lines are for the candle close.

The candle close clearly produce a sort of wedge, they are converging to a center point which will lead to a strong breakout.

The candle wicks clearly show a consolidation pattern and this one is neutral in nature, it can go to either side. Since the pattern is neutral, we have to consider other signals. We can never take one signal in isolation.

It is mixed but we continue to see lower highs and lower lows.

The support and resistance structure also supports the bears at this current point in time. A break above 71K would be necessary to break the descending prices structure, so far this isn't the case.

The month is strongly green, this is true. Candle closure is needed for confirmation.
The month has four more days before it closes. The closure can further clarify the current market situation.

Thank you for reading.

Namaste.

1 de out.

Trade ativo

Bitcoin continues to produce lower high and moving with a strong bearish bias.


The first of the month is full red and this is a bearish bearish for the bigger picture.

Breaking below EMA8 monthly ($59,700) would produce a very strong bearish signal.