Bitcoin likely drop to 10-12k from these levels

Let's first check Bitcoin's beginning and wave structure from an early start to the ATH. It is very likely that bitcoin finished its impulsive Supercycle wave 1 in 2021. The whole of his era in the below analyses:

Cycle Wave 1 (pink colour): This wave began from Bitcoin's start in 2011 and ended at a 2014 high. It had a nice impulsive structure.
Cycle Wave 2 (pink colour): This wave was a correction from 2014 high to the 2015 low and had an obvious corrective structure.
Cycle Wave 3 (pink colour): This was the most explosive Bitcoin pump, starting from 2015 low and ending at the 2017 high. It was likely Bitcoin's Cycle Wave 3, as Wave 3s in Elliott waves are usually the most powerful and strongest waves.
Cycle Wave 4 (pink colour): This wave was a correction from the 2017 high to the COVID lows and was a complicated Wave 4.
Cycle Wave 5 (pink colour): This wave was a pump and FOMO (fear of missing out) and blow-off-the-top formation rise from the COVID low to 2021 high.
With that, Bitcoin has finished a beautiful Supercycle Wave 1 (green colour). Since the whole life is only Supercycle Wave 1, it now needs to be corrected and form Supercycle Wave 2 (green colour).

Now let's focus on the present time. Supercycle corrective Wave 2 will almost certainly be in an ABD ZigZag structure, where the starting point is at an all-time high (ATH). Wave A will likely be somewhere around 10-12K, B will likely go to at least a 0.5 Fibonacci retracement from the ATH to the 2023 lows and is marked with a blue rectangle, and then one more leg C down below 10k, but almost certainly not below the 2018 lows.

It is almost certain that we still haven't finished Wave A from the ABC corrective structure. Waves 1, 2, 3, and 4 are likely finished (red waves), and now we need to finish the last one, Wave 5, toward 10-12K. With that, we will finally finish Wave A (blue wave) of the higher structure and will have several months of a bounce toward Wave B.

Now, let's focus on what is in front of us, in the near future. After Wave A will be finished we will have most likely ABC to form B wave which could be a very strong and aggressive wave. It is almost certain it will pump to 0.5 FIB from ATH to 2023 lows but could also get to 0.618, but it will depend on stock market moves.

After wave B is finished somewhere around the 32-48 area, (depending on where Wave A will finished) we will have a nasty and strong drop in 5 wave structures below 10k where Bitcoin will capitulate like never before, very likely with a fall of USD Thether or Binance or even both. This will be known as the mother of all crashes in bitcoin life, many people will leave crypto because they will be disappointed in crypto. FOMO will go away, and 90% of shitcoins will die. And bitcoin will finally be free of all those scam shit coins so called "decentralized" coins which have their CEO and team member who is supporting them. All COVID investors will go away, will bite their nails and say never again, crypto is a scam and I have to find a job. When the last bull gives up, we can finally go up!

Bitcoin long-term view In that time bitcoin will be ready for a slow recovery and starting of Supercycle wave 3 which will be a massive, several years long-lasting wave with a target above 500k plus. After this badass winter, the sun will arrive but not for 1-2 more years.

But badass winter will last for a few years more.