BITCOINS Long-Time-Consolidation May Have A End In Expectation!

4 de jul. de 2020

Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis where we are looking at the weekly timeframe, the price-formation building up, and where the price will determine the next weeks in destiny. The bitcoin price is showing a low-volatile period for more than 9 weeks now which is certainly a long time for bitcoin in such a narrow range, the volatility gets lower and lower this can indicate a sudden and decisive price move, the longer such a period holds on the greater will be the outcome. I see many people calling for the complete bull market or complete breakdown but this is currently a mere speculative aspect, the truth is both scenarios are still possible here as bitcoin sending highly mixed signals in the range where it is staying more than 9 weeks now, therefore, we should rely on the facts we have in hand and wage them carefully to profit out of opportunities arising in such market environment, everything else is just negligently.

Therefore let's look at my chart and what we can deduce from it, bitcoin is trading in this huge rising channel you can see marked in my chart with a little angle which means that it is a slowly moving channel, a bigger angle will be a faster-moving channel like for example short time impulses on the lower timeframes. Furthermore, on the locally perspective, bitcoin is trading in the smaller parallel channel it is building currently between the important psychological 10K - 10.5K mark where it failed already several times in the past, this fact makes the situation so tricky because it is such an important resistance mark which should not be ignored as bitcoin past showed to us. But this resistance mark will be taken out sooner or later as bitcoin is moving in the mentioned ascending channel, the big question is now if bitcoins shows a correction or bigger pull-back before that scenario or manages to just move above the resistance level.

Bitcoin is moving in an uptrend on the middle term and what we have seen the weeks since the corona-breakdowns established this year which is, by the way, a possible bottom for bitcoin, it is weak but it is an uptrend therefore technically speaking this uptrend can continue when there do not come any bearish invalidation signs which will alter the dynamic into a more bearish trend. As you can watch in my chart bitcoin formed a second time the fractal which we have seen in the 2018 rally where it firstly confirmed the 150-SMA as support and then moved higher to form the sign-of-strength between the 200- and 40-EMA, exactly the same dynamic showed up now which confirmed the overall trend and the test of resistance mark 10K.

You can see in my chart both scenarios which are possible to play out, the first scenario is the immediate breakout scenario where bitcoin manages to move higher and confirm higher in the smaller channel to immediately form a confirmation above the big resistance bitcoin has for several months now, this scenario is possible but the bulls have to form a solid and decisive move above the resistance otherwise the confirmation can fail and turn out to be a fak-out. The second scenario, which is definitely a possible one is that bitcoin firstly shows a smaller or bigger pullback to confirm the 200-EMA which is marked in orange to confirm it and if successful move higher and try another attempt to test the huge resistance.

In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight, have a great day and all the best to you!
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Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.